Eurozone inflation officially hit 4% — its highest in three years — and markets are now increasingly confident that the ECB will raise interest rates again in December.
The facts: Eurostat’s flash estimate for October (Reuters, Nov. 4) put annual eurozone inflation at 4.0%, up from 3.8% in September — exactly in line with market expectations. Core inflation, which is more closely watched, remained steady at 2.5%, while services inflation edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%. Reuters noted that markets now expect two to three ECB rate hikes over the next year, and the ECB itself expects inflation to stay above 4% through most of the first half of 2027 before falling.
My take: These figures, which were in line with expectations, aren’t a surprise, but they reinforce the narrative — inflation driven by high energy prices makes it difficult for the ECB to ease policy, which means global liquidity will remain tight for longer. For risk assets, this isn’t the kind of news that supports a rally: I read BTC, trading around $78,570 this afternoon, as still being in a post-sweep recovery phase after yesterday, not as a rally confirmed by this macro data.
What I’m watching next: Eurostat’s final confirmation, the ECB’s December decision, and the U.S. ISM Services report tonight at 22:00 WIB.
What do you think: will European inflation stuck at 4% put more pressure on risk assets, or has the market already priced it in since energy prices rose?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#InflasiEropa #ECB $BTC
The facts: Eurostat’s flash estimate for October (Reuters, Nov. 4) put annual eurozone inflation at 4.0%, up from 3.8% in September — exactly in line with market expectations. Core inflation, which is more closely watched, remained steady at 2.5%, while services inflation edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%. Reuters noted that markets now expect two to three ECB rate hikes over the next year, and the ECB itself expects inflation to stay above 4% through most of the first half of 2027 before falling.
My take: These figures, which were in line with expectations, aren’t a surprise, but they reinforce the narrative — inflation driven by high energy prices makes it difficult for the ECB to ease policy, which means global liquidity will remain tight for longer. For risk assets, this isn’t the kind of news that supports a rally: I read BTC, trading around $78,570 this afternoon, as still being in a post-sweep recovery phase after yesterday, not as a rally confirmed by this macro data.
What I’m watching next: Eurostat’s final confirmation, the ECB’s December decision, and the U.S. ISM Services report tonight at 22:00 WIB.
What do you think: will European inflation stuck at 4% put more pressure on risk assets, or has the market already priced it in since energy prices rose?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#InflasiEropa #ECB $BTC