The hole punched by the drop to 75,700 was filled in an hour
First, an admission of error. At 12:04 p.m., we wrote, “No second test of 77,500; 77,000 broke first.” The price part was right: the morning high was only 77,544, so it didn’t reach 77,500 again; and the 11 a.m. candle really did plunge to 75,736, a seven-week low. The mistake was in our tone—we read the breakdown as a sign that prices would keep falling, and failed to mention that the 11 a.m. candle’s volume was three times the average for the previous 15 hours. That looked more like panic-driven turnover than a fresh wave of selling. The noon candle climbed from 76,496 and closed at 77,390. Our post went out right at the candle’s low, and we called a reversal a continuation of the downtrend.
Where things stand now: Bitcoin at $78,400, up 1.72% over 24 hours, with an intraday high of 78,556 and low of 75,736; Ethereum at $2,322, up 2.40%, with a high of 2,329 and low of 2,226; Binance Coin at $701.9, up 0.59%, with a high of 705.7 and low of 680.7. From the midday price, Bitcoin has gained about $1,950. Its 24-hour change has flipped from −0.53% to +1.72%—a genuine recovery, not just a rolling window effect. Total market cap is $2.62 trillion, down 0.45% over 24 hours. Both the absolute level and the size of the decline have improved, but the drop is still steeper than Bitcoin’s own: large caps are recovering while altcoins are still bleeding. That’s now been true for three straight days.
Two new developments from the afternoon into the evening. First, U.S. stock futures strengthened before the market opened: S&P futures were up about 0.7% and Nasdaq futures about 0.5% (observed at 17:52). Second, spot gold rose 3% intraday and silver gained 4.4%. Precious metals and stock index futures are rising together, suggesting this round of buying is driven by liquidity expectations, not safe-haven demand.
Tonight, there’s just one level to watch: 78,500. The 24-hour high of 78,556 is right at that level. If prices can push higher with the momentum in futures after the U.S. market opens at 22:30, only a move above 78,500 would complete this V-shaped recovery. If they can’t get above it, 77,500 is the retest confirmation level; a break below would mean this afternoon’s move was only an oversold bounce.
Do you think U.S. stocks will give crypto a boost tonight, or will we see another “pop at the open, then fade during the session”?
#盘前速览 #行情 #Cryptocurrency
$BTC $ETH
First, an admission of error. At 12:04 p.m., we wrote, “No second test of 77,500; 77,000 broke first.” The price part was right: the morning high was only 77,544, so it didn’t reach 77,500 again; and the 11 a.m. candle really did plunge to 75,736, a seven-week low. The mistake was in our tone—we read the breakdown as a sign that prices would keep falling, and failed to mention that the 11 a.m. candle’s volume was three times the average for the previous 15 hours. That looked more like panic-driven turnover than a fresh wave of selling. The noon candle climbed from 76,496 and closed at 77,390. Our post went out right at the candle’s low, and we called a reversal a continuation of the downtrend.
Where things stand now: Bitcoin at $78,400, up 1.72% over 24 hours, with an intraday high of 78,556 and low of 75,736; Ethereum at $2,322, up 2.40%, with a high of 2,329 and low of 2,226; Binance Coin at $701.9, up 0.59%, with a high of 705.7 and low of 680.7. From the midday price, Bitcoin has gained about $1,950. Its 24-hour change has flipped from −0.53% to +1.72%—a genuine recovery, not just a rolling window effect. Total market cap is $2.62 trillion, down 0.45% over 24 hours. Both the absolute level and the size of the decline have improved, but the drop is still steeper than Bitcoin’s own: large caps are recovering while altcoins are still bleeding. That’s now been true for three straight days.
Two new developments from the afternoon into the evening. First, U.S. stock futures strengthened before the market opened: S&P futures were up about 0.7% and Nasdaq futures about 0.5% (observed at 17:52). Second, spot gold rose 3% intraday and silver gained 4.4%. Precious metals and stock index futures are rising together, suggesting this round of buying is driven by liquidity expectations, not safe-haven demand.
Tonight, there’s just one level to watch: 78,500. The 24-hour high of 78,556 is right at that level. If prices can push higher with the momentum in futures after the U.S. market opens at 22:30, only a move above 78,500 would complete this V-shaped recovery. If they can’t get above it, 77,500 is the retest confirmation level; a break below would mean this afternoon’s move was only an oversold bounce.
Do you think U.S. stocks will give crypto a boost tonight, or will we see another “pop at the open, then fade during the session”?
#盘前速览 #行情 #Cryptocurrency
$BTC $ETH