The second issue has also largely been settled. Is the exhaustion of bad news itself good news? At least the signs of a bottom are becoming increasingly clear, but it will take time before the next rally gets underway.
Looking at past midterm elections, the president’s party has almost always lost the House: since 1982, it has lost an average of 21 seats across 11 midterms. The only net gains came in 1998 (+5) and 2002 (+8), driven respectively by a backlash over impeachment and a post-9/11 rally-around-the-flag effect—both exceptional events, not examples of a typical exception.
The probability of Democrats winning the House is 90–95%. Cook estimates they will win 230–240 seats, putting their chances of retaking the House at 73–80% (they need a net gain of 4 seats).
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？
Looking at past midterm elections, the president’s party has almost always lost the House: since 1982, it has lost an average of 21 seats across 11 midterms. The only net gains came in 1998 (+5) and 2002 (+8), driven respectively by a backlash over impeachment and a post-9/11 rally-around-the-flag effect—both exceptional events, not examples of a typical exception.
The probability of Democrats winning the House is 90–95%. Cook estimates they will win 230–240 seats, putting their chances of retaking the House at 73–80% (they need a net gain of 4 seats).
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？
