Bitcoin weathered US election night with a false breakout: the price fell to $75,736 and returned to $77.4K within an hour. This is a bullish signal for the next few days, but higher timeframes remain bearish, and there still hasn’t been a true capitulation in the market. Below is what happened, where the key levels are, and which scenarios are most likely.
Why the market fell
The main reason is politics. Democrats took both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the crypto market read this as a regulatory risk: the market structure bill (Clarity Act) could be delayed, and oversight could tighten. Prediction markets had priced in a Democratic victory ahead of time, but crypto reacted to the actual result.
The backdrop was already weak:
Tech sector. The Nasdaq-100 lost around 6% over the week amid fears about AI spending. Bitcoin is currently moving with the tech sector, not oil or the dollar. A strong AMD report (shares up 7% after hours) couldn’t outweigh the political news overnight. ETFs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $399 million in outflows on November 2 alone. Rates. The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.95%, near the 5% threshold. The market is pricing in about a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.
The weak dollar (DXY 101.5) and oil, which fell in price amid talks with Iran (Brent ~$104), are providing little support so far.
What the charts show
The overnight wick dipped below the previous low of 76,326, the daily EMA200, and the lower Bollinger Band, triggering stops before being bought up. If the day closes near current levels, the daily chart will show a hammer candle—a classic signal of a potential reversal.
But the trend hasn’t broken yet. The price is below the daily EMA20 and EMA50 (79.6–80.0k), and below the weekly EMA50 and EMA100 (78.5–79.0k). The nearest resistances are 77.8k and the 78.4–78.9k zone.
The wave structure allows for two interpretations:
Base case (45%). The correction from the 87,396 high isn’t over yet. A bounce to 77.8–78.4k is underway, followed by a decline to 74,200. Alternative (40%). The overnight sweep completed the correction, with a bottom at 75,736. Confirmation would be a four-hour candle close above 78,878. Deep correction scenario (15%). The entire rise from 57.8 to 87.4k was a rally within a bear market. A weekly close below 69,105 would be a sign of this.
Derivatives: there’s no bottom without capitulation
Over the past 5 years, 16 of Bitcoin’s 17 major bottoms were accompanied by capitulation: sellers aggressively hit the market, volume was twice the average, and funding rates fell to zero or below. None of these signs are present now:
Funding on OKX and Hyperliquid is at the baseline 0.01% per 8 hours; longs are still paying. On OKX, there are 2.4 times as many long accounts as short accounts: retail has bought the dip again. Open interest has fallen by just 3–4%, while a true bottom usually requires a flush of 10% or more.
Around $250 million in positions were liquidated overnight, clearing the nearest long liquidation cluster at 75–76k. The main magnets now are:
80–81k level
Short liquidations, around $0.5 billion
79,000 — Deribit options expiry max pain on November 6
78.9–79.5k. Short liquidations from positions opened during the overnight squeeze
73.75–74.5k. The main long liquidation cluster, $0.4–0.5 billion, and large put positions at 74,000 expiring by November 13
Scenarios and probabilities
The most likely scenario is a bounce into resistance followed by another test of the lows, but the downside bias is slight.
Bounce to 77.8–78.9k, then decline to 74.2k — 45%
ETF outflows and strong employment data on Friday
Bottom at 75,736, rise to 80–81k — 40%
4H candle close above 78,878, Nasdaq bounce
Quick break below 75,736 — 15%
Sell-off continues amid political fears
Touch of 78,000 — 52%
Touch of 75,736 — 29%
Week (through November 8)
Touch of 80,000 — 34%, green week — 35%
Touch of 74,200 — 39%
Month (through the end of November)
Touch of 85,000 — 26%
Red November — 61%, touch of 72,600 — 63%
The model's median price at the end of November is around $74,500.
Conclusion
Election night gave Bitcoin a chance to bounce, but didn’t prove that the bottom is in. As long as the price remains below 78,878, the base case is another test of the lows, targeting the area around 74,000. There’s a large liquidation cluster there, and that may finally be where capitulation happens—the kind of event that usually marks the start of a reversal.
Key levels:
78,878 — A sustained move above this level will confirm the bottom and open the way to 80–81k. 75,736 — A break below opens the way to 74.2k, then 72.6–73k. 69,105 — A weekly close below this level would break the medium-term bullish picture.
The main events this week are US employment data and options expiry on Friday, November 6.
This article is for analytical purposes and does not constitute investment advice.