The White House said on November 3 that U.S. First Lady Melania Trump would invite Russian and Ukrainian representatives to meet at the White House on November 5, and would deliver a speech that morning. On the same day, Russia confirmed that trilateral working-level talks were scheduled for November 10–11, with the delegation led by a presidential aide. Ukraine’s proposed agenda includes a ceasefire covering energy facilities and critical infrastructure, the resumption of grain exports through the Black Sea, and accelerated prisoner exchanges.
Taken together, these three developments give the negotiations a schedule for the first time. On November 1, Trump was still saying that a peace deal was very close—that was only a verbal statement. Once specific dates are set, the way markets price things changes: before every meeting, the war premium has to be recalculated.
Attacks on energy facilities have continued, and crude oil remains at elevated levels. In the lull before the talks, oil prices and risk assets will seesaw. There are three things to watch: whether the November 5 White House meeting produces a joint statement, whether the working-level talks begin as scheduled on November 10, and whether an energy ceasefire can be translated into verifiable terms.
$BTC has always been highly sensitive to this kind of schedule: if the talks go smoothly, it rises for a while; if they collapse, it falls first. A schedule cannot change the trend; what it changes is the gap between expectations and reality before each meeting.
#地缘风险 #Macro Watch
Taken together, these three developments give the negotiations a schedule for the first time. On November 1, Trump was still saying that a peace deal was very close—that was only a verbal statement. Once specific dates are set, the way markets price things changes: before every meeting, the war premium has to be recalculated.
Attacks on energy facilities have continued, and crude oil remains at elevated levels. In the lull before the talks, oil prices and risk assets will seesaw. There are three things to watch: whether the November 5 White House meeting produces a joint statement, whether the working-level talks begin as scheduled on November 10, and whether an energy ceasefire can be translated into verifiable terms.
$BTC has always been highly sensitive to this kind of schedule: if the talks go smoothly, it rises for a while; if they collapse, it falls first. A schedule cannot change the trend; what it changes is the gap between expectations and reality before each meeting.
#地缘风险 #Macro Watch
