#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？
U.S. October nonfarm payrolls came in, with job gains far below market expectations, signaling a cooling labor market.
The weak data were affected by short-term factors: hurricanes and strikes dampened hiring this month. Excluding these disruptions, employment softened moderately overall, wage growth slowed, and wage-driven inflationary pressure eased.
Market pricing shifted rapidly: expectations for rate cuts strengthened further, with CME FedWatch showing a higher probability of a 25-bp rate cut in November.
But note that the Fed operates under a dual-mandate framework. A weakening labor market does not necessarily mean rate cuts will continue; inflation remains the key constraint.
If core inflation rebounds, the Fed will slow the pace of rate cuts. If employment continues to weaken and inflation steadily recedes, the window for rate cuts will remain open.
Near-term focus: This nonfarm payrolls report reinforced rate-cut expectations, but it is a “welcome bonus,” not a decisive signal. Next, the key data to watch are CPI and core PCE inflation.$NVDAB
U.S. October nonfarm payrolls came in, with job gains far below market expectations, signaling a cooling labor market.
The weak data were affected by short-term factors: hurricanes and strikes dampened hiring this month. Excluding these disruptions, employment softened moderately overall, wage growth slowed, and wage-driven inflationary pressure eased.
Market pricing shifted rapidly: expectations for rate cuts strengthened further, with CME FedWatch showing a higher probability of a 25-bp rate cut in November.
But note that the Fed operates under a dual-mandate framework. A weakening labor market does not necessarily mean rate cuts will continue; inflation remains the key constraint.
If core inflation rebounds, the Fed will slow the pace of rate cuts. If employment continues to weaken and inflation steadily recedes, the window for rate cuts will remain open.
Near-term focus: This nonfarm payrolls report reinforced rate-cut expectations, but it is a “welcome bonus,” not a decisive signal. Next, the key data to watch are CPI and core PCE inflation.$NVDAB