Macro: Three major headwinds are weighing on the market, and investors are afraid to move their money
1) U.S. midterm elections: It’s not the result people fear—it’s “not having the result yet”
Voting has just ended, and the results will trickle in over time. Who takes control of Congress will directly determine whether the pro-crypto policy agenda can keep moving forward.
What markets have always found hardest to deal with isn’t good news or bad news, but “not knowing what the news is”—so investors pull back and avoid making big bets.
On top of that, $11 billion worth of options recently expired in a cluster. The sellers who had been helping “keep volatility in check” have stepped away, making prices more prone to sharp swings.
2) November 6 nonfarm payrolls: Too much strength in employment could actually be bad news
The U.S. October jobs report is due that day. The logic is simple: jobs are too easy to find → the Fed has no reason to ease, and may even hike rates again → the dollar gets stronger and there’s less money around to speculate with → volatile assets like Bitcoin take the first hit.
Some market pricing has already put the odds of a December rate hike at about 79%. The dollar index has also risen 0.15% to 101.867, adding another layer of pressure on all dollar-denominated cryptocurrencies.
3) A flight-to-safety signal: Bitcoin hasn’t been holding up as well as gold lately
Here’s a simple metric: 1 BTC now buys roughly 20 ounces of gold, taking the ratio below the long-standing 20-to-1 threshold.
Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone put it bluntly: this isn’t a good sign. “Risk assets” like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies may have further to correct, while investors are more inclined to seek shelter in gold.
Arthur Hayes says much the same: until the Fed or banks put more money into the market, BTC is unlikely to make a meaningful move. For now, it may stay weak.
The one small consolation: Trump said he had “no plans to strike Iran anytime soon,” easing some of the tension. So today, oil, gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies all edged up slightly.
But keep in mind: this is a small “sigh-of-relief” bounce, not a trend reversal to the upside.#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？ #美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？ #AnthropicIPO遭投资者压价，估值盼降至1.5万亿美元
1) U.S. midterm elections: It’s not the result people fear—it’s “not having the result yet”
Voting has just ended, and the results will trickle in over time. Who takes control of Congress will directly determine whether the pro-crypto policy agenda can keep moving forward.
What markets have always found hardest to deal with isn’t good news or bad news, but “not knowing what the news is”—so investors pull back and avoid making big bets.
On top of that, $11 billion worth of options recently expired in a cluster. The sellers who had been helping “keep volatility in check” have stepped away, making prices more prone to sharp swings.
2) November 6 nonfarm payrolls: Too much strength in employment could actually be bad news
The U.S. October jobs report is due that day. The logic is simple: jobs are too easy to find → the Fed has no reason to ease, and may even hike rates again → the dollar gets stronger and there’s less money around to speculate with → volatile assets like Bitcoin take the first hit.
Some market pricing has already put the odds of a December rate hike at about 79%. The dollar index has also risen 0.15% to 101.867, adding another layer of pressure on all dollar-denominated cryptocurrencies.
3) A flight-to-safety signal: Bitcoin hasn’t been holding up as well as gold lately
Here’s a simple metric: 1 BTC now buys roughly 20 ounces of gold, taking the ratio below the long-standing 20-to-1 threshold.
Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone put it bluntly: this isn’t a good sign. “Risk assets” like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies may have further to correct, while investors are more inclined to seek shelter in gold.
Arthur Hayes says much the same: until the Fed or banks put more money into the market, BTC is unlikely to make a meaningful move. For now, it may stay weak.
The one small consolation: Trump said he had “no plans to strike Iran anytime soon,” easing some of the tension. So today, oil, gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies all edged up slightly.
But keep in mind: this is a small “sigh-of-relief” bounce, not a trend reversal to the upside.#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？ #美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？ #AnthropicIPO遭投资者压价，估值盼降至1.5万亿美元
