@Mad Money Monkey is proposing a Bitcoin short in the $77,500–77,800 range. The rationale is a rejection at resistance around $78,700, a break below the short-term uptrend line, and the likelihood of a move back to $75K. The stop in the original plan is $78,402.
I like the setup itself: selling a failed recovery attempt rather than the decline. But this idea has one important competitor—the options market.
Context
On November 4, Bitcoin is trading around $77–78K. After dipping to $75,740, the market recovered, but the weekly trend remains negative. At the time of the morning review, BTC was down about 4.8% for the week.
Institutional demand has yet to confirm a reversal. According to the November 4 report, US spot BTC ETFs saw outflows of about $116 million in the previous session. This marks five consecutive days of net outflows.
But there’s an interesting detail. BaByDoll_Ch’s options analysis shows open interest concentrated around $78–80K. The author highlights $76.5K as an important level where market makers’ positioning could shift. Below the $77–80K range, $75K could be the next area to watch.
So, technical and options analyses partly align. But that doesn’t mean the market has to move lower immediately.
My take
Mad Money Monkey’s idea makes sense if BTC is indeed rejected at $77.5–77.8K.
However, I wouldn’t automatically open a short when price touches this zone. First, I’d want to see buying volume decline, a local lower high form, and price move back below $77.5K.
If BTC establishes itself above $78.4K, the bearish setup will no longer make sense. A sustained break above $78.7K would mean rethinking the entire scenario.
Trading plan
Primary scenario — SHORT after a confirmed rejection.
Entry zone: $77,500–77,800
Confirmation: rejection from the zone, a lower high, and a move back below $77,500.
Stop: $78,450.
TP1: $76,700.
TP2: $75,800.
TP3: $75,000.
Invalidation: price establishing itself above $78,450–78,700.
Risk: 0.5–1% of capital.
Alternative scenario
If BTC establishes itself above $78,400 and successfully retests the level from above, the short is off.
In that case, the next targets are $79,600 and $80,000–80,500.
The risk trap
Options positions around $78–80K could constrain price movement and trigger sharp swings around the strike prices. A break above a level without holding there could turn out to be a simple liquidity grab.
Don’t forget the macroeconomic calendar: US ADP and ISM Services data are due on November 4, while the jobs report is expected on November 6. This could shift market sentiment within hours.
Conclusion
Mad Money Monkey’s idea has merit. But the key signal isn’t simply BTC trading near $77.5K—it’s how price reacts to a retest of this zone.
As long as $78.4–78.7K hasn’t been reclaimed, sellers still have a chance to push the price toward $75K. If buyers reclaim this area, it’ll be too late to short.
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