Post
crisnikoale
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#USOctoberNFP-AreRateCutsStillPossible
Are rate cuts still possible? Friday will decide.
📅 October NFP comes out November 6 at 8:30 AM ET
📊 Consensus: +55K to +65K jobs
📊 Unemployment: expected at 4.2%
What we know:
September was a shock: just +29K jobs vs. the 90K expected, with revisions of -60K for July and August. Unemployment rose to 4.2% and wage growth cooled to 3.0% year over year.
But the Fed didn't blink.
On October 28, the Fed held rates at 3.75% - 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with 2 members actually wanting a HIKE. Markets are now pricing in a ∼76% chance of a hike in December, not a cut.
Why? This is a "low-hire, low-fire" market. Jobless claims are at 194K, near their 1969 lows. Nobody is getting laid off; companies simply aren't hiring.
_3 scenarios for Friday:_
🟢 Weak (<50K) + Unemployment rising = Cuts back on the table → Bullish for BTC, ETH, Gold
🟡 In line (55-65K) = Fed stays higher for longer → Sideways / Volatile
🔴 Strong (>100K) = Hike risk rises → Bearish for risk assets
My take: A weak number alone won't force the Fed to cut while inflation is at 3.7% and the Fed just hiked in September despite weak jobs. The Fed is worried about stickiness, not weakness.
Cuts are still possible, but October's NFP has to be _really_ weak to reopen that door.
What's your bet? Weak, in line, or strong?
_Not financial advice. For educational purposes only._
Are rate cuts still possible? Friday will decide.
📅 October NFP comes out November 6 at 8:30 AM ET
📊 Consensus: +55K to +65K jobs
📊 Unemployment: expected at 4.2%
What we know:
September was a shock: just +29K jobs vs. the 90K expected, with revisions of -60K for July and August. Unemployment rose to 4.2% and wage growth cooled to 3.0% year over year.
But the Fed didn't blink.
On October 28, the Fed held rates at 3.75% - 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with 2 members actually wanting a HIKE. Markets are now pricing in a ∼76% chance of a hike in December, not a cut.
Why? This is a "low-hire, low-fire" market. Jobless claims are at 194K, near their 1969 lows. Nobody is getting laid off; companies simply aren't hiring.
_3 scenarios for Friday:_
🟢 Weak (<50K) + Unemployment rising = Cuts back on the table → Bullish for BTC, ETH, Gold
🟡 In line (55-65K) = Fed stays higher for longer → Sideways / Volatile
🔴 Strong (>100K) = Hike risk rises → Bearish for risk assets
My take: A weak number alone won't force the Fed to cut while inflation is at 3.7% and the Fed just hiked in September despite weak jobs. The Fed is worried about stickiness, not weakness.
Cuts are still possible, but October's NFP has to be _really_ weak to reopen that door.
What's your bet? Weak, in line, or strong?
_Not financial advice. For educational purposes only._
