šŸ“‰ Is all the bad news out? No—the next hidden risk is Iran…

Everyone already knows rate hikes are expected, and the market has priced them in well in advance. It’s no major shock.

The next real risk to watch for is an escalation of the war in Iran (guard against a black swan).

My near-term game plan:
1ļøāƒ£ Short term: I’m watching to see if there’s a little ā€œwickā€ down tonight. If there is, I’ll pick up a bit more.
2ļøāƒ£ Mid term (higher conviction): The recent plunge is mainly due to the double whammy of ā€œBinance being hacked + Democrats taking the House.ā€ It’s hard to imagine a bigger shock than that in the short term. So I’ve just opened a small position to hold for a little longer and see how things play out. It’s not a gamble—I think the outlook is relatively clear.
3ļøāƒ£ Longer-term milestone: The next window to watch is December 9. We’ll see what happens then, while also staying prepared for an escalation in Iran.

The logic is simple: once the bad news is out, it’s time to bet on what’s more certain. What do you think tonight? Anyone planning to buy the dip like me?šŸ‘‡

$BTC #BTC