Came across a pretty striking figure this morning: with the Strait of Hormuz choked off, Europe has paid an extra $142 billion for the same amount of energy. And that’s Europe alone. Household electricity bills have already surged, with prices back at crisis levels from 2022. Several countries have started burning coal to get by.

The mood in Iran is shifting too. In Friday prayer sermons, clerics openly urged the leadership to relent and pursue nuclear weapons. Israel has also tipped off the US that Iran is considering chemical weapons. The claims are unverified, but both sides keep raising the stakes, and there’s no end to this conflict in sight anytime soon.

The supply side isn’t helping either: API crude inventories plunged by 5.267 million barrels, when a 1.987 million-barrel increase was expected—a difference of nearly 7 million barrels. We’ll get the real picture from EIA tonight at 23:30.

Now for tonight’s data marathon: ADP at 21:15, ISM Services at 23:00, and EIA at 23:30—three key events in one day. CPI is already at 3.7%, with energy adding pressure. A Fed rate hike in December is practically a done deal.

By the way, midterm election results start coming in today. Once the election is over, watch what Trump does next.

Volatility is high—manage your position size.

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