First, let's look at the data. On November 4, the yuan's central parity rate against the US dollar was set at 6.7180, down 30 basis points from the previous trading day. It weakened for a third consecutive trading day, reaching its weakest level since October 23 and coming in well below the Reuters estimate of 6.6811. The onshore yuan briefly fell to around 6.68 in morning trading, its weakest level since October 19, while the offshore yuan also weakened.
On the policy front, the People's Bank of China announced on November 3 that, effective November 15, it would raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions from 4% to 6%—the first increase since December 2021. After the announcement, the US dollar briefly rose by more than 280 basis points against the offshore yuan during the day, reaching 6.675. Market participants believe the move is intended to curb the yuan's overly rapid depreciation and stabilize exchange rate expectations. It is a countercyclical adjustment tool, rather than a shift in policy direction.
For risk assets, exchange-rate fluctuations are transmitted to crypto markets through liquidity expectations. BTC is currently at 77,812.73 (+1.53%), ETH at 2,295.06 (+2.09%), and BNB at 698.64 (+0.47%). The Fear & Greed Index is 34, in the Fear zone—sentiment is cautious, but major coins still posted modest gains, suggesting that funds are not making a systemic exit. Notably, $MSTR , a U.S.-listed stock that is highly correlated with Bitcoin, often amplifies BTC’s volatility; if the RMB remains weak in the short term, the premium and volatility of $MSTR may also increase in tandem. The recent price-volume relationship in $MSTR is more informative than looking at the direction of the exchange rate alone.
Risk warning: The effects of exchange-rate policy tools take time to materialize, and deviations between the central parity rate and market expectations may increase short-term volatility. Crypto assets are strongly correlated with U.S. stocks, and the high volatility of $MSTR may amplify drawdown risk. Please manage your position size and make your own independent judgments.
Are you more interested in how exchange rates affect $MSTR , or in BTC’s own technical levels?