In the next bull market, I think the thing to be most wary of may not be missing out, but taking part in the next rally with the lessons of the last one.
Many veteran players are still used to understanding the market through the lens of the past: BTC takes off, ETH follows, then capital spills over into altcoins, and finally different sectors take turns performing well. As long as you can hold on, your opportunity will eventually come.
But this playbook may be becoming obsolete.
Today’s crypto market is already severely oversupplied with assets. New projects and tokens appear every day, while established projects continue releasing more tokens into circulation. Yet capital hasn’t grown in step—in fact, it’s becoming increasingly concentrated in a handful of assets with liquidity, revenue, and real demand.
This means that even if the market as a whole enters a bull run, it may not lift most tokens.
We could even see a sharply divided market: BTC keeps hitting new highs, a handful of hot sectors repeatedly generate wealth, while large numbers of established altcoins remain flat on the ground.
What’s more, the market’s attention is shifting faster and faster. Today it’s AI, tomorrow RWA, and the day after that some new narrative emerges. By the time ordinary investors have done their research and decided to enter, early investors may already be starting to exit.
So I think the most important change in the next market cycle may not be how big the gains are, but that the divide between assets could be far greater than ever before.
The crypto industry can continue to expand, the number of users can keep growing, and on-chain trading volumes can keep reaching new highs—but that growth may not be reflected in the price of the tokens you hold.
In the future, it may no longer be about who can hold on the longest, but who can spot in time where capital and value are moving.
After all, the market has never been responsible for making every participant money. A bull market simply creates opportunities; it doesn’t guarantee that everyone will seize them.
Many veteran players are still used to understanding the market through the lens of the past: BTC takes off, ETH follows, then capital spills over into altcoins, and finally different sectors take turns performing well. As long as you can hold on, your opportunity will eventually come.
But this playbook may be becoming obsolete.
Today’s crypto market is already severely oversupplied with assets. New projects and tokens appear every day, while established projects continue releasing more tokens into circulation. Yet capital hasn’t grown in step—in fact, it’s becoming increasingly concentrated in a handful of assets with liquidity, revenue, and real demand.
This means that even if the market as a whole enters a bull run, it may not lift most tokens.
We could even see a sharply divided market: BTC keeps hitting new highs, a handful of hot sectors repeatedly generate wealth, while large numbers of established altcoins remain flat on the ground.
What’s more, the market’s attention is shifting faster and faster. Today it’s AI, tomorrow RWA, and the day after that some new narrative emerges. By the time ordinary investors have done their research and decided to enter, early investors may already be starting to exit.
So I think the most important change in the next market cycle may not be how big the gains are, but that the divide between assets could be far greater than ever before.
The crypto industry can continue to expand, the number of users can keep growing, and on-chain trading volumes can keep reaching new highs—but that growth may not be reflected in the price of the tokens you hold.
In the future, it may no longer be about who can hold on the longest, but who can spot in time where capital and value are moving.
After all, the market has never been responsible for making every participant money. A bull market simply creates opportunities; it doesn’t guarantee that everyone will seize them.