News on the table: $ARIA is climbing in price, while contract open interest is shrinking. Is the market really buying it?
Over the past day, the price is up 8.27% from this time yesterday. Hey~.
Over the same period, open interest is down 5.68% from this time yesterday.
From Cathie Wood’s perspective, the technical trend is bullish, so a continuation makes sense.
From Burry’s perspective, rising prices and falling open interest look more like short covering propping up the price.
I’m more convinced by the short-covering explanation and am not yet buying the idea that fresh capital is stepping in; the bullish technicals are counterevidence, so I’m only mildly bearish.
The bulls’ “fresh capital stepping in” routine—pfft~—is like “a closing-down stall pushing a cart while hanging an opening-soon banner.”
Let’s settle the disagreement with clear boundaries:
A drop below 0.112 would confirm the lack of follow-through, and I’d expect weakness to continue.
A break above 0.127 would mean I underestimated the strength, invalidating my bearish view.
Are you voting for “5.68% reveals a lack of follow-through,”
or “5.68% is just a breather before the rally continues”?
#ARIA #Candlestick Chart Analysis
Data from Binance public market data; not investment advice.
Over the past day, the price is up 8.27% from this time yesterday. Hey~.
Over the same period, open interest is down 5.68% from this time yesterday.
From Cathie Wood’s perspective, the technical trend is bullish, so a continuation makes sense.
From Burry’s perspective, rising prices and falling open interest look more like short covering propping up the price.
I’m more convinced by the short-covering explanation and am not yet buying the idea that fresh capital is stepping in; the bullish technicals are counterevidence, so I’m only mildly bearish.
The bulls’ “fresh capital stepping in” routine—pfft~—is like “a closing-down stall pushing a cart while hanging an opening-soon banner.”
Let’s settle the disagreement with clear boundaries:
A drop below 0.112 would confirm the lack of follow-through, and I’d expect weakness to continue.
A break above 0.127 would mean I underestimated the strength, invalidating my bearish view.
Are you voting for “5.68% reveals a lack of follow-through,”
or “5.68% is just a breather before the rally continues”?
#ARIA #Candlestick Chart Analysis
Data from Binance public market data; not investment advice.
