#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？
$BTC What broke wasn’t sentiment, but positioning: on the 2014/2018/2022 voting days, BTC was 35%, 9%, and 22% below its 200-day moving average, respectively; yesterday, at 76,700, it was still 5% above the 200-day average (73,200).
The bear market came early: the bottom was set at 57,850 on July 1, 125 days before voting day. The usual “election-day selloff sets the bear-market bottom” had already played out ahead of schedule.
But: October closed down 7.3% (its worst since 2014), ETFs saw $1.04 billion in outflows over two days, and the probability of a December rate hike is still 73%. In the short term, it’s choppy—not a trend.
Me: I’m not chasing. I’ll wait for a pullback to 73,200 and assess the setup; if that level breaks, “breaking” turns into “catching down.”
Are you waiting for a pullback, or have you already chased in?
#BTC #中期选举 #觉照交易法
$BTC What broke wasn’t sentiment, but positioning: on the 2014/2018/2022 voting days, BTC was 35%, 9%, and 22% below its 200-day moving average, respectively; yesterday, at 76,700, it was still 5% above the 200-day average (73,200).
The bear market came early: the bottom was set at 57,850 on July 1, 125 days before voting day. The usual “election-day selloff sets the bear-market bottom” had already played out ahead of schedule.
But: October closed down 7.3% (its worst since 2014), ETFs saw $1.04 billion in outflows over two days, and the probability of a December rate hike is still 73%. In the short term, it’s choppy—not a trend.
Me: I’m not chasing. I’ll wait for a pullback to 73,200 and assess the setup; if that level breaks, “breaking” turns into “catching down.”
Are you waiting for a pullback, or have you already chased in?
#BTC #中期选举 #觉照交易法