$JCT was still trading sideways at 0.0042 at 9 a.m., then plunged to 0.00325 in just over three hours—a drop of more than 20%. It’s down 31% in 24 hours.
The worst move came at 11: a 15-minute green candle pushed it up to 0.004387, making it look like buyers were stepping in to scoop up the dip. But it gave all those gains back in less than an hour, and even broke below the 11-02 low of 0.0037. When a bounce collapses at the first touch, it means there are sell orders from people waiting to break even all the way up.
I’m bearish, for two reasons:
- Open interest in futures fell from about 14.8 million U at 9 a.m. to around 12.4 million U now. Price and open interest are both falling, which means longs are being forced to close—not that shorts are driving the sell-off. There’s no follow-through from buyers.
- But the long-short ratio hasn’t fallen much. 57% of retail accounts are long, while large traders’ positions are 63% net long, and the funding rate is still positive. After a 30% drop, so many people are still holding long positions. Every bounce from here could be a chance for them to sell.
0.0042 was the lower edge of the previous trading range, but it’s now resistance. I’ll exit if the price gets back above 0.0042. Below that level, I’ll treat every bounce as a chance to reduce my position.
For those holding JCT longs, are you planning to add to your position to lower your average cost, or wait for a bounce to get out? Let me know what you’re thinking.
#JCT #山寨币异动 #FuturesMarket
The worst move came at 11: a 15-minute green candle pushed it up to 0.004387, making it look like buyers were stepping in to scoop up the dip. But it gave all those gains back in less than an hour, and even broke below the 11-02 low of 0.0037. When a bounce collapses at the first touch, it means there are sell orders from people waiting to break even all the way up.
I’m bearish, for two reasons:
- Open interest in futures fell from about 14.8 million U at 9 a.m. to around 12.4 million U now. Price and open interest are both falling, which means longs are being forced to close—not that shorts are driving the sell-off. There’s no follow-through from buyers.
- But the long-short ratio hasn’t fallen much. 57% of retail accounts are long, while large traders’ positions are 63% net long, and the funding rate is still positive. After a 30% drop, so many people are still holding long positions. Every bounce from here could be a chance for them to sell.
0.0042 was the lower edge of the previous trading range, but it’s now resistance. I’ll exit if the price gets back above 0.0042. Below that level, I’ll treat every bounce as a chance to reduce my position.
For those holding JCT longs, are you planning to add to your position to lower your average cost, or wait for a bounce to get out? Let me know what you’re thinking.
#JCT #山寨币异动 #FuturesMarket
