By coincidence, the $BTC four-year halving cycle lines up perfectly with the U.S. midterm election cycle.
Historically, the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections all fell near the end of a bear market. After the midterms, there was often one final wave of selling and panic-driven capitulation, forming a cyclical bottom before a new bull market gradually began. What’s even more interesting is that the bottom has been arriving sooner each time.
After the 2014 midterms, it took 71 days to hit the bear-market bottom. After the 2018 midterms, the bottom came 39 days later. After the 2022 midterms, a low was reached just 13 days later. One explanation is that institutional capital has grown, information travels faster, and risk is priced in more quickly. Panic that used to grind on for months is now priced in all at once within weeks—or even days.
But this is a historical pattern, and the underlying drivers of every downturn are completely different. This time, there’s another variable in play: the election results are directly tied to expectations for crypto-friendly policies. If the balance of power in Congress shifts, expectations around regulation and legislation could reshape market pricing.
If you often get caught chasing rallies and selling dips, and don’t have a clear direction, join the chat room for trading ideas.
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？ $ETH
Historically, the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections all fell near the end of a bear market. After the midterms, there was often one final wave of selling and panic-driven capitulation, forming a cyclical bottom before a new bull market gradually began. What’s even more interesting is that the bottom has been arriving sooner each time.
After the 2014 midterms, it took 71 days to hit the bear-market bottom. After the 2018 midterms, the bottom came 39 days later. After the 2022 midterms, a low was reached just 13 days later. One explanation is that institutional capital has grown, information travels faster, and risk is priced in more quickly. Panic that used to grind on for months is now priced in all at once within weeks—or even days.
But this is a historical pattern, and the underlying drivers of every downturn are completely different. This time, there’s another variable in play: the election results are directly tied to expectations for crypto-friendly policies. If the balance of power in Congress shifts, expectations around regulation and legislation could reshape market pricing.
If you often get caught chasing rallies and selling dips, and don’t have a clear direction, join the chat room for trading ideas.
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？ $ETH
