Honestly, when MMT's unlock kicked off at 8 a.m. today, my first reaction wasn't to check how much it had dropped—I went straight to the spot order book to see whether anyone was actually dumping.
The result was pretty contradictory.
At 8:15 a.m. Beijing time, that 15-minute candle saw the price plunge from around 0.118 to 0.1166, with roughly $15,000 in volume—suddenly much more active than during the quiet hours before dawn. But over the next half hour, it gradually crept back above 0.117. As I write this, MMT is trading around 0.117 on Binance spot, with a 24-hour range of roughly 0.1145 to 0.124. The line marking the low is still holding for now.
One quick note on the broader market: BTC is hovering around $77,000, and BNB hasn't moved much either. Midterm election results are still coming in, so short-term sentiment is already messy. The Fear & Greed Index edged up from 26 yesterday to 34, but I didn't read much into it.
What I care more about is the structure of the funds. 👀
The unlock is estimated at around 250 million tokens, worth roughly $30 million at the current price. That would suddenly expand the circulating supply by a significant amount from just over 200 million. But Binance spot trading volume over the past 24 hours was only a little over $400,000. Think about that ratio: the unlock’s notional value is dozens of times the daily spot volume. If those tokens really get dumped, the spot market’s depth is nowhere near enough to absorb them. If they haven’t been sent to exchanges yet, the price will just keep grinding along like it is now. It looks like it “hasn’t crashed,” but really, the selling pressure hasn’t fully hit the market yet.
The derivatives market is even livelier. Third-party data shows that MMT perpetual open interest at one point exceeded its spot market cap by a considerable margin. That suggests a lot of people are using leverage to bet on the direction of the unlock, rather than gradually trading in and out on the spot market. My take is that the most dangerous moment on unlock day isn’t necessarily the initial sell-off, but the hours afterward—or even the next day or two—when we’ll see whether the unlock addresses keep depositing tokens to exchanges. Holding around 0.115 only shows that there was no panic selling in the first wave; it doesn’t mean the selling pressure is over.
So right now I’m watching two things: first, whether spot volume can keep increasing; second, whether the 0.1145–0.115 support zone can hold. A high-volume break lower would tell me the selling pressure is being realized; if it moves sideways on low volume, it’s more likely that the unlocked tokens haven’t really entered the market yet. 📉
Just my personal opinion—manage your own positions. Do you think this wave of selling pressure is over, or are you waiting for another leg down? 🤔
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