【Today’s Headlines at a Glance | 11/4】
• $BTC spot is around 77180, down from about 77687 in the earlier morning buzz post; 24h high: about 78066, low: about 76386. It touched near 78 overnight before slipping back below 77; still about 4820 short of 82
• The Fear & Greed Index rose to 34 (Fear). It was 26 in both the morning buzz post and last night’s report, up 8 points in a day, but this is still not a signal to buy the dip
• Binance’s official Update #6 (11/3) remains the latest update on recovery progress: another batch of network/asset withdrawals resumed from 11/3 04:00 (UTC), with priority given according to demand and a gradual reopening after security checks; deposits are unaffected. The post gave no new USD withdrawal figures. The latest figures remain those from the version dated around 11/1 23:30 UTC+8: about $4.65 billion withdrawn and about $3.64 billion in net outflows. Update #5’s information is unchanged: the 10/31 PoR is fully zk-verifiable, and the next snapshot is planned for today, 11/4. No new snapshot announcement has appeared in the list as of this draft. According to DefiLlama, Binance’s 24-hour fund flow shows about $3.2 billion in net inflows; total platform assets are about $129.5 billion, while net outflows over the past week remain around $10.8 billion
• Binance released a preliminary report on the 10/29 security incident: attackers hacked an engineer’s computer through a fake job interview, then used AI tools to gain control of signing authority; about $6.34 billion in assets were affected, of which about $2.85 billion has been frozen or intercepted. The latest FBI information still points to North Korea. Changpeng Zhao said in an interview that the industry is discussing forming a security alliance, and more platforms may be hit in the short term
• Farside’s complete figures for Monday (11/2): total net outflows of about $398.6 million for BTC and $139.7 million for ETH. Friday (10/30) was still BTC about −$643.2 million and ETH about −$155.7 million. Farside has entries for Tuesday (11/3), but major funds such as IBIT and FBTC are still shown as dashes; total BTC is about −$27.4 million and ETH about −$10.9 million, so treat these as incomplete figures. There’s no entry yet for Wednesday (11/4)
• Polymarket puts the odds of a 25 bp December rate hike at about 74.5%, and of no change at about 22.5%—roughly in line with the early-morning hype posts, with the hike camp still dominant
• U.S. midterm election counting is still underway, with most seats undecided in the Asian morning session. Foreign media still frame the Clarity Act stalling for the year and post-election regulatory pricing as the main story; don’t mistake a local turnaround for the overall result
• CFTC Chair Selig’s statement: single-stock perpetual futures can be launched first on designated contract markets registered with simultaneous notice to the SEC, under a dual CFTC-SEC framework as securities futures products. Coinbase Derivatives and Kalshi have already submitted related contracts
• Oil: WTI settled around 96.09, Brent around 103.60, continuing to drift after Monday’s plunge; expectations of easing Middle East tensions are still weighing on the risk premium
• Ondo’s USDY has launched continuous pricing, with holding yields accruing by the second. Justin Sun’s legal team has asked for sanctions against WLFI, alleging it disclosed a shareholder’s UAE citizenship only months into the lawsuit. A side story, not a position driver
Last night’s evening brief said Update 6 was live and 77 was still grinding sideways.
It touched about 78066 overnight, then gave back gains to around 77180; Fear and Greed recovered from 26 to 34.
Election results aren’t settled yet; don’t mistake a rebound for a trend.
Trading outlook
Wait-and-see, leaning defensive. Price is grinding around 77; the overnight push to 78 didn’t hold. Update 6 is live, but the $3.64 billion net outflow remains the latest official figure, so keep positions small.
Don’t catch a falling knife with longs in the 763–78.1 area. If you trade, wait for the next withdrawal batches to stabilize, and for a 4-hour close back above 78 first; then see whether price can reclaim 80–81.5. Put the stop below 76. If it can’t hold, exit; next watch 76386, then 75–74. Don’t bet that the overnight move to 78066 was a confirmed breakout.
For shorts, wait for a rebound into the 77.5–79 area to fail, then try a small position with a stop above 80; if the 4-hour chart gets back above 80, the short thesis is invalidated. Don’t chase shorts around 763–772: liquidity can get swept during the election-counting window, and the withdrawal window is still ongoing.
Monday’s complete ETF figures showed another roughly $399 million outflow from BTC and $140 million from ETH; Friday’s $643 million outflow hasn’t been digested yet, so don’t call it a turning point before Tuesday’s official figures come out. Fear and Greed recovering to 34 only means sentiment is less dire; don’t rely on that number to buy the dip. December rate-hike pricing is around 75%, so don’t lean on a hold to support a near-term easing narrative. Until most midterm seats are decided, keep positions small rather than large.
ETH is around 2267, grinding sideways much like BTC during the day, with a 24-hour high near 2309 and low near 2241. First watch 2309–2350 above and 2200, then 2150, below. Don’t treat ETH as a leading indicator and buy the dip on its own.
Heating up
The board overall is a little warmer than last night’s evening brief, but also much cooler than the early-morning hype post. On the hot side, PUMP is up about 6.4% on genuine volume; the early-morning hype post’s roughly 10.4% gain has faded. LIT is up about 7% on genuine volume, versus about 9.7% in the early morning, also faded. ZEC is up about 4.2% with volume still high; after turning green at around +8.4% in the early morning, its gains have narrowed. IRYS and ZRO surged on thin volume in the early morning, but momentum is fading. On the cool side, TRUMP is still in the red, down about 3.4%; NEAR is down about 2.2% on genuine volume; HUMA and XPL have pared their early-morning losses. Sentiment can flip hot or cold quickly; treat hot coins as satellites.
Treat hot coins as satellites; the main focus remains $BTC’s price level, Binance’s follow-up withdrawal batches and the PoR snapshot planned for today, as well as the midterm election results.
Technical analysis
$BTC daily: 10/30 high around 81970, low around 76519; 24-hour high around 78066, low around 76386, current price around 77180. The early-morning hype post had it around 77687; overnight, it first touched nearly 78, then fell back below 77. 82 was the level lost last Thursday, and price is still about 4820 away from it; during the day, 77 has been holding in a grind. Resistance: 77.5 → 78.1 → 80 → 81.5 → 82. Without a 4-hour close back above 78, treat rebounds as areas to reduce positions or try shorts; don’t rush to call a bottom. Price level comes first; watch whether 76386 holds.
ETH is around 2267 and lagging slightly; don’t look for a bottom in it on its own. SOL around 92.1 and BNB around 694 are both weak (BNB is also still feeling the aftereffects of the exchange incident). XRP around 1.263 rallied during the day, then pulled back. Don’t buy the dip in side plays while the market is weak.
MEME
DOGE around 0.0745 is flat, and PEPE is mostly flat. While major coins grind around 77, MEME coins have no unified direction. PUMP is up about 6% on genuine volume; treat it as a satellite and don’t chase. TRUMP is still in the red, down about 3.4%; HYPE is flat. Neither is a hedge.
Events to watch
• Binance Update #6 follow-up withdrawal batches and actual activation status, network status page, next PoR snapshot after Update #5 (around 11/4), and zk progress; net outflows of about $3.64 billion remain the latest official disclosure, so keep short-term positions small
• U.S. midterm election results; after the Clarity Act stalled for the year, watch post-election regulatory pricing and the timeline for CFTC-listed single-stock perpetuals
• The Fed has stood pat; watch the December outlook. Polymarket puts the odds of a 25 bp December rate hike at about 75%
• Full Monday ETF figures: BTC about −$399 million, ETH about −$140 million; Friday was still BTC about −$643 million, ETH about −$156 million. Once Tuesday’s official figures are out, first check whether there’s a third day of redemptions
• Can BTC hold 76386? Only consider trying longs after a 4-hour close back above 78
• Fear and Greed has recovered to 34; treat it only as a sentiment indicator, not a bottom-buying signal
• Whether there will be a second wave of deleveraging after the futures liquidation peak; watch highly leveraged positions near the current price
• Whether oil prices and Middle East diplomacy will reprice the risk premium