$CL
$BZ
Iran has laid seven conditions on the table—including lifting sanctions, withdrawing troops, and unfreezing assets—and is demanding a clear response from the U.S. before reopening the strait. The nuclear issue is off the table for now. Trump, meanwhile, acknowledged on the same day that the U.S. had bombed Iran’s Qeshm Island and said he wouldn’t rule out military action after the election. Negotiations and conflict are unfolding in parallel on the same day.
Markets are more honest than politicians. Oil prices are seesawing between easing tensions and renewed friction, with Brent fluctuating around $103; BTC is hovering around $77,000. As long as the strait remains closed, oil prices will stay in limbo, inflation won’t come down, and the window for Fed easing will keep being pushed back.
Don’t focus on what Trump said. Watch the level of the U.S. response to the seven conditions after those 36 hours in Qatar. A dismissive response, and oil prices will climb right back to where they were; a serious engagement would be the first sign that macroeconomic headwinds are easing.
$BTC
$BZ
Iran has laid seven conditions on the table—including lifting sanctions, withdrawing troops, and unfreezing assets—and is demanding a clear response from the U.S. before reopening the strait. The nuclear issue is off the table for now. Trump, meanwhile, acknowledged on the same day that the U.S. had bombed Iran’s Qeshm Island and said he wouldn’t rule out military action after the election. Negotiations and conflict are unfolding in parallel on the same day.
Markets are more honest than politicians. Oil prices are seesawing between easing tensions and renewed friction, with Brent fluctuating around $103; BTC is hovering around $77,000. As long as the strait remains closed, oil prices will stay in limbo, inflation won’t come down, and the window for Fed easing will keep being pushed back.
Don’t focus on what Trump said. Watch the level of the U.S. response to the seven conditions after those 36 hours in Qatar. A dismissive response, and oil prices will climb right back to where they were; a serious engagement would be the first sign that macroeconomic headwinds are easing.
$BTC
