The AI bill is starting to land on every company’s doorstep tonight.

The Nasdaq opened up 0.4%—not bad at a glance, but individual stocks were telling two very different stories.

Shopify stood out most: its revenue missed for the first time in four years, and its stock plunged 10%. Wells Fargo put it plainly: AI costs are eating into margins. Even Disney has laid down a firm target for management: cut costs by 20% every year. Thousands of layoffs are in the works.

Meanwhile, Anthropic disclosed that its quarterly revenue had surged twelvefold. Sounds impressive, right? But it also plans to burn through more than $895 billion over the next few years. PIMCO’s CEO threw cold water on the excitement: AI financing could hit $10 trillion within five years, eventually reaching “excessive” levels. Goldman Sachs piled on: hyperscale cloud providers have issued $271 billion in debt this year, exceeding Goldman’s own full-year forecast, with another $40 billion-plus added since October 29. Goldman’s wording was more nuanced: evidence of monetization by 2028 is needed to ease rating pressure across the AI ecosystem.

In plain English: the bond market is starting to demand cash flow from AI. The countdown is on for the hype-and-promises phase.

A quick word on macro: voting in the midterm elections is underway today; the U.S. and Iran are fighting and negotiating at the same time, while tankers are still hitting mines. Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. will hold trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi next week—the first since February. With headlines whipping back and forth, betting on a direction is like giving your money away.

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