11.4 Chen Jie nighttime analysis
The easing of tensions in the Middle East shipping lane caused international oil prices to plunge more than 7%, with inflation and safe-haven buying clearly cooling; the RBA raised rates to 4.85%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at a high 4.91%, and combined with a further reduction of institutional holdings by 1.14 tons, the overall macro backdrop is favorable. Although the U.S. midterm election vote count and Wednesday's ADP employment data brought short-term volatility, after rising from 3895 to 3971 it quickly gave back nearly 40 points to around 3932, and has been blocked for two consecutive days at 3970–3971, forming a double-top resistance
The daily and 12-hour charts continue the downward channel. After the U.S. session spike, price quickly fell back below the 4-hour midline (3946), yesterday's close (3946), and today's open (3949), indicating that the sharp evening rise was a wide-range shakeout ahead of the data. The upper double-top resistance at 3971 is very solid
Current price 3932 is at the 1-hour midline (3930), the center of the range. After a 76-point wide tug-of-war, chasing directly from the center is very likely to encounter intraday pullback sweeps. The area above 3945–3955 overlaps with the 15-minute resistance level (3945), the 4-hour midline, and the 50% retracement of the U.S. session pullback wave. It is more prudent to wait patiently for a pullback test of this resistance zone before entering
Trading strategy
Short at 3945-3955, target 3915-3885-3855, stop loss 3973#xau $XAU
The easing of tensions in the Middle East shipping lane caused international oil prices to plunge more than 7%, with inflation and safe-haven buying clearly cooling; the RBA raised rates to 4.85%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at a high 4.91%, and combined with a further reduction of institutional holdings by 1.14 tons, the overall macro backdrop is favorable. Although the U.S. midterm election vote count and Wednesday's ADP employment data brought short-term volatility, after rising from 3895 to 3971 it quickly gave back nearly 40 points to around 3932, and has been blocked for two consecutive days at 3970–3971, forming a double-top resistance
The daily and 12-hour charts continue the downward channel. After the U.S. session spike, price quickly fell back below the 4-hour midline (3946), yesterday's close (3946), and today's open (3949), indicating that the sharp evening rise was a wide-range shakeout ahead of the data. The upper double-top resistance at 3971 is very solid
Current price 3932 is at the 1-hour midline (3930), the center of the range. After a 76-point wide tug-of-war, chasing directly from the center is very likely to encounter intraday pullback sweeps. The area above 3945–3955 overlaps with the 15-minute resistance level (3945), the 4-hour midline, and the 50% retracement of the U.S. session pullback wave. It is more prudent to wait patiently for a pullback test of this resistance zone before entering
Trading strategy
Short at 3945-3955, target 3915-3885-3855, stop loss 3973#xau $XAU
