That 10 p.m. candle last night: $UAI crashed from 0.1434 to 0.0965 in an hour, with 14 million U in volume. What stings even more is that after the crash, more people actually started going long.
Zooming out, it gets even worse: the high was 0.3341 on November 1, and last night’s low was 0.0909—a drop of more than 70% in three days. Yesterday afternoon, it finally managed to rebound to around 0.17, only to offer a better exit price for sellers.
I’m still bearish, for a simple reason:
- During those hours of steep declines, the share of accounts net long across the market climbed from 62% to 65.8%. Retail traders kept buying the dip all the way down;
- Whales’ long positions were only 53.6%, a far cry from retail traders’ enthusiasm. Smart money didn’t follow them in;
- Open interest in futures only fell from 4.77 million U to 4.44 million U. The bulls have barely given up—there are still plenty of longs waiting to be liquidated below;
- The funding rate at the midnight settlement had already flipped to -0.016%. Shorts are willing to pay just to hold their positions.
The fact that it’s moving sideways around 0.10 doesn’t mean it’s found support—it’s waiting for the next batch of dip buyers to pile in. 0.1045 is overhead resistance. If it can’t reclaim that level, it’ll keep looking for support at 0.0909 or even lower. I’ll exit if it convincingly breaks above 0.1045.
If you’re holding UAI, did you get stuck above 0.15, or did you just buy the dip last night? Tell me why you think this is the bottom.
#UAI #山寨币暴跌 #合约数据 #BuyTheDipOrCatchTheFallingKnife
Zooming out, it gets even worse: the high was 0.3341 on November 1, and last night’s low was 0.0909—a drop of more than 70% in three days. Yesterday afternoon, it finally managed to rebound to around 0.17, only to offer a better exit price for sellers.
I’m still bearish, for a simple reason:
- During those hours of steep declines, the share of accounts net long across the market climbed from 62% to 65.8%. Retail traders kept buying the dip all the way down;
- Whales’ long positions were only 53.6%, a far cry from retail traders’ enthusiasm. Smart money didn’t follow them in;
- Open interest in futures only fell from 4.77 million U to 4.44 million U. The bulls have barely given up—there are still plenty of longs waiting to be liquidated below;
- The funding rate at the midnight settlement had already flipped to -0.016%. Shorts are willing to pay just to hold their positions.
The fact that it’s moving sideways around 0.10 doesn’t mean it’s found support—it’s waiting for the next batch of dip buyers to pile in. 0.1045 is overhead resistance. If it can’t reclaim that level, it’ll keep looking for support at 0.0909 or even lower. I’ll exit if it convincingly breaks above 0.1045.
If you’re holding UAI, did you get stuck above 0.15, or did you just buy the dip last night? Tell me why you think this is the bottom.
#UAI #山寨币暴跌 #合约数据 #BuyTheDipOrCatchTheFallingKnife
