First, let’s correct a trending claim: the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report has not been released yet. It is officially scheduled for 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 6.
The market currently expects around 50,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate possibly falling from 4.2% to 4.1%. If the data is stronger than expected, it may not support rate cuts—instead, it could keep the possibility of a December rate hike on the table.
The market’s logic is getting more and more surreal:
Good jobs numbers, and people worry about rate hikes; bad jobs numbers, and they hope for monetary easing. The ideal scenario is for ordinary people to be unable to find work while asset prices keep rising.
So what people really care about may not be whether Americans have jobs at all, but whether unemployment is high enough to force the Fed to bail out their portfolios.
Do you want strong or weak nonfarm payrolls? Don’t answer just yet—first consider whether you’re looking at this from a worker’s perspective or an investor’s.
$BTC $DXYZ.US $SPX #美国10月非农出炉 #降息还有戏吗
The market currently expects around 50,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate possibly falling from 4.2% to 4.1%. If the data is stronger than expected, it may not support rate cuts—instead, it could keep the possibility of a December rate hike on the table.
The market’s logic is getting more and more surreal:
Good jobs numbers, and people worry about rate hikes; bad jobs numbers, and they hope for monetary easing. The ideal scenario is for ordinary people to be unable to find work while asset prices keep rising.
So what people really care about may not be whether Americans have jobs at all, but whether unemployment is high enough to force the Fed to bail out their portfolios.
Do you want strong or weak nonfarm payrolls? Don’t answer just yet—first consider whether you’re looking at this from a worker’s perspective or an investor’s.
$BTC $DXYZ.US $SPX #美国10月非农出炉 #降息还有戏吗
