Midterm Election Voting Day
The window for positioning in US stocks has truly opened
Voting on November 3
Markets aren’t trading on slogans
They’re pricing how risk appetite will shift once uncertainty clears
Historical data shows the S&P 500 was stronger than usual in most years after the election
With average gains in the low double digits
But that’s an average
Not a guarantee that stocks will rise tonight
The tougher constraints lie elsewhere
Oil prices, Treasury yields, and a pullback in tech stocks
These are what crypto has really been tracking over the past few days
Once the election results become clear
Investors will first rebalance their US stock positions
Then decide whether to return some risk budget to crypto
An open window doesn’t mean a one-way rally
Volatility comes first
Direction comes later
Bitcoin has lately looked more like a proxy for risk appetite in US stocks
$BTC $ETH
#USMidtermElectionCountdown, has the window for positioning in US stocks opened? #美股 #RiskAppetite
The window for positioning in US stocks has truly opened
Voting on November 3
Markets aren’t trading on slogans
They’re pricing how risk appetite will shift once uncertainty clears
Historical data shows the S&P 500 was stronger than usual in most years after the election
With average gains in the low double digits
But that’s an average
Not a guarantee that stocks will rise tonight
The tougher constraints lie elsewhere
Oil prices, Treasury yields, and a pullback in tech stocks
These are what crypto has really been tracking over the past few days
Once the election results become clear
Investors will first rebalance their US stock positions
Then decide whether to return some risk budget to crypto
An open window doesn’t mean a one-way rally
Volatility comes first
Direction comes later
Bitcoin has lately looked more like a proxy for risk appetite in US stocks
$BTC $ETH
#USMidtermElectionCountdown, has the window for positioning in US stocks opened? #美股 #RiskAppetite