🚨Bitcoin just broke a pattern that's held since 2014 and nobody's talking about it!
Bitcoin walked into midterm election day above its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2014.
In 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC was 35%, 9%, and 22% below that line on election day.
Every single time, it was sitting in a bear-market structure.
This year? Roughly 5% above it.
But here's the part that should actually make you pause:
History says the bottom doesn't come on election day. It comes after.
The last three cycle lows landed 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days after the midterms. If that pattern holds, the real low could hit anywhere from mid-November to mid-January.
The 12-month bulls are right about the average 53.7% gains in the year following the last three midterms. But the same data that says "buy the year after" also says "the chop isn't over yet."
Whether $BTC holds that 200-day line through the election noise.
If it does, the structural break is real.
If it doesn't, we're back to the same script.
Bitcoin walked into midterm election day above its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2014.
In 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC was 35%, 9%, and 22% below that line on election day.
Every single time, it was sitting in a bear-market structure.
This year? Roughly 5% above it.
But here's the part that should actually make you pause:
History says the bottom doesn't come on election day. It comes after.
The last three cycle lows landed 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days after the midterms. If that pattern holds, the real low could hit anywhere from mid-November to mid-January.
The 12-month bulls are right about the average 53.7% gains in the year following the last three midterms. But the same data that says "buy the year after" also says "the chop isn't over yet."
Whether $BTC holds that 200-day line through the election noise.
If it does, the structural break is real.
If it doesn't, we're back to the same script.
