Apple delivers its “best fiscal year ever,” but shares fall: The market isn’t waiting for an iPhone—it’s waiting for AI
✅ Revenue of $114.48 billion (+12%), beating expectations
✅ Earnings per share of $2.10 (+14%), beating expectations
✅ iPhone revenue of $57.58 billion (+17%), a September-quarter record
✅ Mac revenue of $10.79 billion (+24%); Services hit a record $31.57 billion
❌ iPad revenue of $6.2 billion (-10%); Wearables revenue of $8.3 billion (-8%)
❌ Shares fell after earnings
Apple officially called it the best fiscal year in its history, and the numbers certainly back that up. But the market voted with its feet, making one thing clear: Apple is now valued not on its hardware cycle, but on AI.
iPhone growth of 17% is great, but that’s thanks to the upgrade cycle—not Apple Intelligence. Services hit a new high, but not a penny of that can be clearly attributed to AI subscriptions. Compare that with Microsoft’s cloud growth of 48% and Google Cloud’s growth of 103%, and Apple’s AI story is the weakest in the room.
In the short term, Apple shares are volatile with a bearish bias. Even better-than-expected earnings can’t offset the discount for “AI absence.” There’s only one catalyst: next quarter, Services growth must stay above 10%, and Apple must offer hard evidence on the earnings call that AI is driving subscriptions. Until then, bulls are paying for faith.
Invalidation point: If Services growth falls below 10% next quarter, it would show that AI’s absence is already eroding Apple’s core business.
$AAPL #AppleEarnings
✅ Revenue of $114.48 billion (+12%), beating expectations
✅ Earnings per share of $2.10 (+14%), beating expectations
✅ iPhone revenue of $57.58 billion (+17%), a September-quarter record
✅ Mac revenue of $10.79 billion (+24%); Services hit a record $31.57 billion
❌ iPad revenue of $6.2 billion (-10%); Wearables revenue of $8.3 billion (-8%)
❌ Shares fell after earnings
Apple officially called it the best fiscal year in its history, and the numbers certainly back that up. But the market voted with its feet, making one thing clear: Apple is now valued not on its hardware cycle, but on AI.
iPhone growth of 17% is great, but that’s thanks to the upgrade cycle—not Apple Intelligence. Services hit a new high, but not a penny of that can be clearly attributed to AI subscriptions. Compare that with Microsoft’s cloud growth of 48% and Google Cloud’s growth of 103%, and Apple’s AI story is the weakest in the room.
In the short term, Apple shares are volatile with a bearish bias. Even better-than-expected earnings can’t offset the discount for “AI absence.” There’s only one catalyst: next quarter, Services growth must stay above 10%, and Apple must offer hard evidence on the earnings call that AI is driving subscriptions. Until then, bulls are paying for faith.
Invalidation point: If Services growth falls below 10% next quarter, it would show that AI’s absence is already eroding Apple’s core business.
$AAPL #AppleEarnings