$BTC is facing trouble ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Wall Street is pulling money out, traders are betting on further declines, and the world's largest crypto exchange is recovering from a record $6.3 billion hack.
Voting on November 3 could add another layer of uncertainty to an already nervous market.
On October 30, $BTC briefly dipped below $77,000, then climbed back above $78,000 on Monday. Ethereum also bounced from $2,200 to around $2,287. However, this recovery did little to address the weakness lurking beneath the surface.Posts by BitunixOfficial
Wall Street sounds the alarm
On October 30, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643.2 million in outflows. This erased the inflows recorded over the previous four trading sessions.
The week ended with net outflows of around $202 million. Ethereum funds faced an even more sustained sell-off, losing $431.4 million over five consecutive trading days.
Fresh data have intensified concerns that institutional buying is not enough to keep bitcoin above $80,000.
Meanwhile, on-chain data put bitcoin’s estimated average cost basis at $74,800. There is relatively little room between recent prices and the average purchase price tracked by this analysis.
Large traders are also bracing for volatility. Bitunix analysts identified a $201 million leveraged short position in bitcoin on Hyperliquid as of October 29. That is a significant bearish bet ahead of election week.
The election could shape crypto’s next move
The midterm election results will show which party gains control of Congress. This could determine the fate of the CLARITY Act, a bill intended to establish a unified regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the United States.
The bill failed to advance in the Senate in September. A change in control of Congress could alter its path, though disagreements over the legislation already cut across party lines.
Crypto investors are also watching the fallout from the Binance hack. After the attack, customers withdrew a net $3.64 billion from the exchange, although Binance said withdrawals were stabilizing and that about 95% of the stolen assets had already been recovered using the company’s own resources.
Two key levels
The first key level is $80,000. If bitcoin rises above it, that could bring money back into ETFs.
The second key level is $77,000. If the price falls below it, the market will turn its attention to $74,800. According to Bitunix calculations, this is the average price at which investors bought bitcoin. A drop to this level would mean that many holders are sitting on losses.
Election results are on the horizon, and confidence in the market remains low. The key question this week is simple: can political clarity bring buyers back if large investors are already pulling their money out?