Today, SUI has a factor that doesn’t show up on a regular chart: another token unlock.
According to Tokenomics.com, around 22.6 million SUI will be unlocked on November 3, equivalent to about 0.2% of the total supply and around 0.5% of the current market capitalization.
At the same time, there’s a fresh bearish idea on Binance Square from Basic Trader Crypto: the author is considering a short on SUI after it rejects the upper Bollinger Band and breaks below the middle band, with an entry at $1.465–1.475 and a target of $1.421. But there’s an important caveat: the price data published in this post doesn’t match today’s market, so I’m not carrying over the entry price to the current plan. I’m using only the idea’s technical logic: rejection → loss of support → short after a retest.
Context
SUI remains one of the more prominent L1 projects, but the market has long known its weak spot: a large share of its maximum supply is still not in circulation.
Based on the current chart, the vesting schedule still stretches far into the future. Tokenomics.com estimates the circulating supply at around 4.14 billion SUI out of 10 billion, or about 41.4%.
Today’s unlock is not catastrophic in itself. 22.6 million SUI is only about 0.2% of the total supply. But the market often reacts not to the absolute size of an unlock, but to the possibility of additional supply coming onto the market.
There is an important detail, though: DefiLlama data shows the next major batch of unlock events is coming in late November and early December. So today’s release is part of an ongoing schedule, not a one-off event.
My view
I don’t want to repeat an old mistake here—shorting SUI just because an unlock happened.
An unlock creates potential supply. It doesn’t guarantee selling.
That’s why I need a technical trigger.
If SUI can’t hold the nearest support after the unlock, then makes a weak retest from below and forms a lower high, the short setup becomes much more interesting.
If the market calmly absorbs the new tokens and SUI starts reclaiming resistance levels, I’ll have to drop the bearish scenario.
Trading plan
Main scenario — SHORT after a confirmed breakdown/retest.
Watch zone: the nearest local support after today’s move.
Confirmation: a break of support on the 1H chart, a retest from below, and rejection.
Stop: above the local lower high after the retest.
TP1: the next daily support.
TP2: the next liquidity zone below.
TP3: the low of the previous impulse.
Invalidation: a move back above the broken support and consolidation above it on the 1H chart.
Risk: 0.5–1% of capital.
Alternative scenario
If SUI absorbs today’s supply without a significant drop and reclaims the broken zone, that would be more of a bullish signal.
In that case, the market will have effectively absorbed the unlock.
That’s exactly what I’d consider a strong signal: the market gets additional supply, but the price doesn’t fall.
Risk trap
The most obvious trap is to open a short before the market reacts to the unlock.
That could lead to a sharp liquidity sweep downward, after which the price returns above the level.
The second mistake is to treat 0.2% of the total supply as enormous selling pressure. For an actual seller, what matters more than the unlock size on paper is how many tokens actually make it onto the market.
Conclusion
SUI is interesting today not because an unlock is automatically bearish.
The experiment itself is interesting: can the market absorb the new supply without breaking down its structure?
If not, a short after a breakdown/retest becomes logical.
If it can, that’s an argument for buyer strength instead.
So it’s better to trade the reaction here, not the unlock itself.
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