The midterms are being voted on today: control of the House, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships.

Prediction markets give Democrats ~94% odds of retaking the House and ~70-75% odds of winning the Senate.

BTC is around $76,500-$77,000, already below its highs, with the market still digesting last week's Binance hack.

The 3 key scenarios for crypto:

1. Democratic sweep (most likely)

Elizabeth Warren or tougher figures could gain more influence on key committees.

The CLARITY Act (market structure), which has already failed in the Senate, will probably be stalled or die.

Short term: more volatility, pressure on alts and more heavily regulated tokens (DeFi, exchanges, etc.).

Bitcoin tends to be more resilient, but the market could remain on edge for 1–4 weeks.

2. Divided Congress (Democrats in the House + Republicans in the Senate)

Middle-ground scenario.

Less chance of aggressive crypto legislation, either for or against it.

More regulatory “status quo” → the market could consolidate or rebound once the uncertainty clears.

3. Republican surprise (less likely)

The market would see this as more favorable to clear, pro-crypto regulation.

A strong rally in BTC + alts + crypto stocks is possible if this comes to pass.

Historical data that matters:

In the last 3 midterms, BTC ended higher 12 months later (+23%, +45% and +93%).

But the following month is usually choppy or negative.

This time, BTC is above its 200-day moving average (breaking the 2014–2022 pattern).

Quick takeaway:

Today, voters aren’t choosing a president; they’re choosing the Congress that will write (or not write) the rules for crypto in 2027–2028.

The outcome is already fairly “priced in.” The real move will come from the surprise factor + ETF flows + this week’s macro data.

Which scenario do you think is most likely, and how are you positioned?

👇 Share your take in the comments.