US midterms TODAY. Here's what actually matters for markets:
JPMorgan ran the scenarios. All 435 House seats + 35 Senate + 36 governors up for grabs. Real question: does Trump keep Congress or does he have to start negotiating?
4 outcomes JPMorgan is tracking:
Blue wave (66% odds): $SPX -0.25%. Fear = AI regulation ramps up. JPM says buy any dip.
Split Congress, Dem House + GOP Senate (26% odds): $SPX +0.5% to +1%.
Red wave (7% odds): $SPX +1% to +1.25%. Status quo, no new reg risk.
GOP House + Dem Senate (1% odds): $SPX +0.25% to +0.75%.
For crypto:
CLARITY Act already dead in Senate since Sept. Dem House makes revival even harder.
BUT: $BTC has pumped after every midterm since 2014. +24% in 2014, +45% in 2018, +92% in 2022.
Historically, $SPX averages +13% in the 12 months post-midterms regardless of winner. No scenario here predicts a real dump.
TLDR: volatility today, but structure says up over next year.
JPMorgan ran the scenarios. All 435 House seats + 35 Senate + 36 governors up for grabs. Real question: does Trump keep Congress or does he have to start negotiating?
4 outcomes JPMorgan is tracking:
Blue wave (66% odds): $SPX -0.25%. Fear = AI regulation ramps up. JPM says buy any dip.
Split Congress, Dem House + GOP Senate (26% odds): $SPX +0.5% to +1%.
Red wave (7% odds): $SPX +1% to +1.25%. Status quo, no new reg risk.
GOP House + Dem Senate (1% odds): $SPX +0.25% to +0.75%.
For crypto:
CLARITY Act already dead in Senate since Sept. Dem House makes revival even harder.
BUT: $BTC has pumped after every midterm since 2014. +24% in 2014, +45% in 2018, +92% in 2022.
Historically, $SPX averages +13% in the 12 months post-midterms regardless of winner. No scenario here predicts a real dump.
TLDR: volatility today, but structure says up over next year.
