Now I finally understand what “fighting while negotiating” means.
The WSJ dug up a detail: the U.S. military has actually been carrying out small-scale strikes against Iran in secret for weeks. Qeshm Island was just the latest one. The official line each time is “defensive measures,” supposedly to protect commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian attacks. Yet on the very same day, Trump was still saying a “deal could be reached,” and oil prices plunged 7.36% yesterday—the biggest one-day drop in history.
Then news of airstrikes broke on election day, and Brent crude bounced back in a V-shape to $107.16. The war premium that had just been stripped out got added back in one click. To everyone who went short this morning: how’s it feel to catch that falling knife?
Iran hasn’t been idle either. The IRGC announced it had downed its 55th MQ-9 drone, while electronic warfare also suppressed two MQM-170 reconnaissance drones. This war of attrition is like grinding through mobs in a video game, except every drone costs real money.
The wildest part is Saudi Aramco: while oil prices swing wildly, it’s quietly raking in profits as refining margins widen—a hidden winner in wartime.
Keep an eye on three things tonight: midterm election results, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, and December rate-hike pricing. Saxo says the volatility window is wide open. BTC is stuck at $79,000, barely moving, waiting for the same answer as everyone else.
Fighting while negotiating will be the norm. Don’t expect a one-and-done solution. NFA DYOR
#中东局势 #原油 #比特币 #中期选举 #drone
The WSJ dug up a detail: the U.S. military has actually been carrying out small-scale strikes against Iran in secret for weeks. Qeshm Island was just the latest one. The official line each time is “defensive measures,” supposedly to protect commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian attacks. Yet on the very same day, Trump was still saying a “deal could be reached,” and oil prices plunged 7.36% yesterday—the biggest one-day drop in history.
Then news of airstrikes broke on election day, and Brent crude bounced back in a V-shape to $107.16. The war premium that had just been stripped out got added back in one click. To everyone who went short this morning: how’s it feel to catch that falling knife?
Iran hasn’t been idle either. The IRGC announced it had downed its 55th MQ-9 drone, while electronic warfare also suppressed two MQM-170 reconnaissance drones. This war of attrition is like grinding through mobs in a video game, except every drone costs real money.
The wildest part is Saudi Aramco: while oil prices swing wildly, it’s quietly raking in profits as refining margins widen—a hidden winner in wartime.
Keep an eye on three things tonight: midterm election results, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, and December rate-hike pricing. Saxo says the volatility window is wide open. BTC is stuck at $79,000, barely moving, waiting for the same answer as everyone else.
Fighting while negotiating will be the norm. Don’t expect a one-and-done solution. NFA DYOR
#中东局势 #原油 #比特币 #中期选举 #drone