The blog @Market-Pulse__ suggests shorting ENA in the $0.198–0.200 zone after rejection at $0.210. Stop: $0.2085, target: $0.18. The author is waiting for a weak retest of the broken trendline before entering.
A separate technical analysis @Chilling_Trades also maintains a bearish view on ENA, pointing to a break of the higher low, negative CVD, and the $0.1841–0.1845 area as a potential short zone.
This makes for an interesting situation: two different approaches point in the same direction, but use different confirmation levels.
Context
Ethena remains one of the most interesting projects in the DeFi sector thanks to USDe and the growing role of synthetic dollars. But this also creates a problem for ENA: ecosystem growth doesn’t necessarily mean the token will rise immediately.
In recent months, the market has repeatedly repriced ENA based on expectations of new integrations, USDe yields, and ecosystem expansion. At the same time, token supply remains an important factor. ENA has large unlock events, so any technical rally needs to be assessed alongside the potential increase in supply.
The market as a whole is currently in risk-off mode. Bitcoin has lost institutional demand: US BTC ETFs saw combined outflows of more than $1 billion on October 30 and November 2. This is especially bad news for high-beta altcoins.
My position
I like Market-Pulse__’s idea, but only in the form of retest → rejection → short.
I wouldn’t open a short simply at $0.20.
Why? Because $0.20 is a psychological level. Price could break through it first, sweep liquidity, and then move back below it.
A more interesting scenario is for ENA to rise into $0.198–0.202, fail to hold above it, and form a lower high. Then the seller has a clear invalidation point.
Trading plan
Primary scenario — SHORT.
Entry zone: $0.198–0.202.
Confirmation: rejection and a move back below $0.198 on the 15m–1h timeframe.
Stop: $0.209.
TP1: $0.190.
TP2: $0.184.
TP3: $0.176–0.180.
Invalidation: holding above $0.209.
Risk: 0.5–1% of capital.
Alternative scenario
If ENA reclaims $0.209–0.210 and holds that level, the bearish scenario is invalidated.
That would open up the possibility of a move toward $0.22.
A break above $0.22 on volume would be especially dangerous for sellers: in that case, the market could start closing accumulated short positions.
Risk trap
ENA is already quite volatile. So using high leverage for a small target is a bad combination.
Another trap is looking only at CVD. Negative CVD confirms selling pressure, but doesn’t guarantee that the decline will continue. We need to see the price reaction at a specific level.
Conclusion
ENA looks more interesting for a short right now than for buying in the middle of the range.
But the trade should be based not on the $0.20 level itself, but on the price reaction at $0.198–0.202.
If the seller confirms, $0.184 becomes the first serious target. If ENA reclaims $0.209–0.210, it’s better to close the bearish trade.
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