There's a split at the top of the market today, and I can't pretend both sides carry equal weight. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $399M on Monday, their second straight day of outflows, with BlackRock's IBIT alone shedding $405M — its biggest daily outflow since June, per CoinDesk and Farside data. On the other side of the trade, Strategy stepped back in and bought 811 $BTC for $65.5M.
I respect Strategy's conviction, genuinely — buying into a selloff takes nerve. But the maths keeps me honest: that $65.5M covers roughly a sixth of a single day's ETF selling, and it lands on a day when about $366M in leveraged positions were liquidated and Fear & Greed sits at 26. One famous buyer is a signal; $399M walking out the door two days running is a flow, and flows pay the bills in the short term.
So my stance for this week is Team Flows, not Team Saylor. If ETF flows flip back to inflows, or $76,000 holds through Friday's jobs report, I'll flip with them — I follow the money, not the mascot. But until then, a dip bought by one company doesn't outweigh a market still being sold by the funds.
Which side are you actually trading on right now — Team Flows, Team Saylor, or Team Wait-and-see? And what would flip you?
I respect Strategy's conviction, genuinely — buying into a selloff takes nerve. But the maths keeps me honest: that $65.5M covers roughly a sixth of a single day's ETF selling, and it lands on a day when about $366M in leveraged positions were liquidated and Fear & Greed sits at 26. One famous buyer is a signal; $399M walking out the door two days running is a flow, and flows pay the bills in the short term.
So my stance for this week is Team Flows, not Team Saylor. If ETF flows flip back to inflows, or $76,000 holds through Friday's jobs report, I'll flip with them — I follow the money, not the mascot. But until then, a dip bought by one company doesn't outweigh a market still being sold by the funds.
Which side are you actually trading on right now — Team Flows, Team Saylor, or Team Wait-and-see? And what would flip you?
