The latest macro data is sending mixed signals. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October came in above expectations at 55.5, suggesting a strong economy, but the price index remains elevated at 75.2. On top of that, core PCE rebounded to 3.1% in September, so inflationary pressure has hardly eased. As a result, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike in December have jumped to 70%.
The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report (expected job gains of 60,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%) is arriving at a particularly awkward moment. One comment in the community put it perfectly: whether the nonfarm numbers are strong or weak, the market falls either way—the data itself is a source of risk, not a signal of direction. The logic is simple: if the data is too strong, rate-hike expectations get priced in fully and risk assets fall; if it’s too weak, recession fears intensify, and they still fall.
BTC is currently down 0.14%, with everyone holding their breath. Before a major macro event like this, the last thing you want to do is bet on a one-way move. Keep your hands off the trigger, use less leverage to avoid getting caught by a sudden wick, and wait for the data to come out and sentiment to settle before looking for an entry. #非农就业数据 $BTC
The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report (expected job gains of 60,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%) is arriving at a particularly awkward moment. One comment in the community put it perfectly: whether the nonfarm numbers are strong or weak, the market falls either way—the data itself is a source of risk, not a signal of direction. The logic is simple: if the data is too strong, rate-hike expectations get priced in fully and risk assets fall; if it’s too weak, recession fears intensify, and they still fall.
BTC is currently down 0.14%, with everyone holding their breath. Before a major macro event like this, the last thing you want to do is bet on a one-way move. Keep your hands off the trigger, use less leverage to avoid getting caught by a sudden wick, and wait for the data to come out and sentiment to settle before looking for an entry. #非农就业数据 $BTC