Is Trump going to lose? Countdown to the midterm elections! The odds have landed at 73%—will Bitcoin and tech stocks be repriced?
The latest prediction market data has pushed the odds of Democrats sweeping Congress straight to 73%, with Republicans likely to lose the initiative. Midterm elections are basically a president’s halfway report card. The controversies surrounding Trump’s handling of the economy and inflation over the past two years have now become issues voters will hold him accountable for.
But don’t overlook one thing: in the last two elections, the market was also overwhelmingly betting against him, only for the outcome to turn around in the end. Could that miracle happen again this time? Judging by the current odds, it looks like a tough ask. The market has already made a Democratic sweep its base-case scenario and started pricing it in ahead of time. If Democrats take both chambers, Trump’s plans to cut taxes, loosen regulations, and impose tariffs will be very hard to implement.
A lot of people see the election as a lifeline for the CLARITY Act, but there’s a major catch. The Senate needs 60 votes to advance the bill, and whichever party wins this election, it won’t reach that threshold. Tonight’s results can only change committee membership and adjust the priority of issues. These are long-term, gradual factors—not something that will immediately set the market off.
My take is simple: there’s no need to stay up all night watching the results and betting on a direction. Reduce your position to a level that lets you sleep easy. What will really determine market pricing this week isn’t the election—it’s Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data! When the figures come out, I’ll be there with the crew to jump into the market right away. If you don’t want to miss out, come straight to the Krusty Krab for the play 👉@10000ETt
#美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？ #美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？
The latest prediction market data has pushed the odds of Democrats sweeping Congress straight to 73%, with Republicans likely to lose the initiative. Midterm elections are basically a president’s halfway report card. The controversies surrounding Trump’s handling of the economy and inflation over the past two years have now become issues voters will hold him accountable for.
But don’t overlook one thing: in the last two elections, the market was also overwhelmingly betting against him, only for the outcome to turn around in the end. Could that miracle happen again this time? Judging by the current odds, it looks like a tough ask. The market has already made a Democratic sweep its base-case scenario and started pricing it in ahead of time. If Democrats take both chambers, Trump’s plans to cut taxes, loosen regulations, and impose tariffs will be very hard to implement.
A lot of people see the election as a lifeline for the CLARITY Act, but there’s a major catch. The Senate needs 60 votes to advance the bill, and whichever party wins this election, it won’t reach that threshold. Tonight’s results can only change committee membership and adjust the priority of issues. These are long-term, gradual factors—not something that will immediately set the market off.
My take is simple: there’s no need to stay up all night watching the results and betting on a direction. Reduce your position to a level that lets you sleep easy. What will really determine market pricing this week isn’t the election—it’s Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data! When the figures come out, I’ll be there with the crew to jump into the market right away. If you don’t want to miss out, come straight to the Krusty Krab for the play 👉@10000ETt
#美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？ #美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？
