【Stablecoins 30D -3.33%: At a historic 4% level, money is dwindling】
As of November 3:
· Total stablecoin supply: 297.11B
· 30-day change: -3.33%, at a historic 4% level (lower than on 96% of days)
· USDT: -2.87%; USDC: -3.96%, but already +0.02% over 7 days
· GRSI: 76.8 (high)
The instinctive reaction: money is pulling out, so BTC is going to fall.
But our B-002 backtest offers a counterpoint:
After stablecoins fall below -2% over 30 days, BTC averages +1.24% over the following 20 days, with a 47% hit rate.
This isn't saying “outflows are bullish.” Rather:
The direction of one indicator doesn't directly determine the direction of prices.
Three things to watch next:
Can the 30-day change recover to -2.5%? ｜ Can USDT stop falling? ｜ Will net inflows to exchanges improve?
Money is flowing out, but history says not to rush into a short.
$BTC #稳定币 #BTC走势分析 #风险监测 #lamboDaddy
Not investment advice
As of November 3:
· Total stablecoin supply: 297.11B
· 30-day change: -3.33%, at a historic 4% level (lower than on 96% of days)
· USDT: -2.87%; USDC: -3.96%, but already +0.02% over 7 days
· GRSI: 76.8 (high)
The instinctive reaction: money is pulling out, so BTC is going to fall.
But our B-002 backtest offers a counterpoint:
After stablecoins fall below -2% over 30 days, BTC averages +1.24% over the following 20 days, with a 47% hit rate.
This isn't saying “outflows are bullish.” Rather:
The direction of one indicator doesn't directly determine the direction of prices.
Three things to watch next:
Can the 30-day change recover to -2.5%? ｜ Can USDT stop falling? ｜ Will net inflows to exchanges improve?
Money is flowing out, but history says not to rush into a short.
$BTC #稳定币 #BTC走势分析 #风险监测 #lamboDaddy
Not investment advice
