Market maker’s perspective: $BTC evening session — neither of the two midday levels was breached; the 14:00 wick broke below one, then recovered
📊 20:37 snapshot (OKX perpetuals)
Current price 77,465.7; 24h high 78,237.4, low 76,360
OI approx. $2.622 billion (33,842.1 coins, down approx. 225.6 coins from midday), funding rate 0.01% / 8h
━━━
📌 Full-day review: Neither of the two levels watched at midday was triggered by the afternoon closing-price criteria
The midday outlook was clear: a 1H close above 77,570.1 would invalidate the breakdown; a 1H close below 76,472 would signal continued downside. The afternoon turned into a choppy stretch:
The 12:00 candle closed at 76,915.9; the 13:00 candle at 76,627.9; the 14:00 candle at 76,558.5; the 15:00 candle at 76,796.5; the 16:00 candle at 76,606.3; the 17:00 candle at 77,044.2; the 18:00 candle at 77,107; and the 19:00 candle at 77,074.1. All eight closes were below 77,570.1 and above 76,472. Price never closed above the upper level or below the lower one.
One more note on 76,666: the 13:00, 14:00, and 16:00 candles closed below it, while the 15:00 and 17:00 candles closed back above it. After crossing back and forth three times in one day, it’s no longer a clean dividing line; overnight, treat it only as a midpoint reference.
The easiest candle to misread is the 14:00 one: its lower wick probed 76,360, setting a new 24h low, and extended $112 below 76,472. But it closed at 76,558.5, recovering to $86.5 above 76,472. By the 1H closing-price criteria, continued downside was not triggered. A probe is not a break; a wick breaking below doesn’t count—the close recovered, so the level held.
The 20:00 candle is still in progress, with a high of 77,468.9 and a low of 76,966.5. The current price of 77,465.7 is just $104.4 below the upper level at 77,570.1. An intrabar move across a level does not count as a trigger; the first decisive point is the 21:00 close, i.e. the close of the 20:00 candle.
In a sample of 100 trades (over approx. 2.6 seconds), aggressive sells accounted for 94 and buys for 6. This is only a momentary reference, not evidence of direction.
━━━
📌 If I were the market maker
The afternoon wasn’t about chasing wicks: the 14:00 wick probed 76,360, then the candle closed back above 76,472. Anyone who chased the wick breakdown was taught a lesson by the recovery at the close. Conversely, the close also never rose above 77,570.1, so anyone chasing the upper level got no closing confirmation either. Neither side got confirmation at the close, so overnight I’d wait for the close—not chase an intrabar move.
Price is up about $421.1 from midday, while OI is down about 225.6 coins. Price rose as open interest fell; positions did not follow through.
━━━
📌 Overnight watch: first the 21:00 close, then the two levels
Above: A 1H close above 77,570.1 invalidates the breakdown; then watch 78,000.
Below: A 1H close below 76,472 signals continued downside; then watch 76,260.
Between: If the close holds above 76,472 and below 77,570.1, the market remains choppy; don’t guess the direction. Wicks and intrabar moves across either level do not count as triggers.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
📊 20:37 snapshot (OKX perpetuals)
Current price 77,465.7; 24h high 78,237.4, low 76,360
OI approx. $2.622 billion (33,842.1 coins, down approx. 225.6 coins from midday), funding rate 0.01% / 8h
━━━
📌 Full-day review: Neither of the two levels watched at midday was triggered by the afternoon closing-price criteria
The midday outlook was clear: a 1H close above 77,570.1 would invalidate the breakdown; a 1H close below 76,472 would signal continued downside. The afternoon turned into a choppy stretch:
The 12:00 candle closed at 76,915.9; the 13:00 candle at 76,627.9; the 14:00 candle at 76,558.5; the 15:00 candle at 76,796.5; the 16:00 candle at 76,606.3; the 17:00 candle at 77,044.2; the 18:00 candle at 77,107; and the 19:00 candle at 77,074.1. All eight closes were below 77,570.1 and above 76,472. Price never closed above the upper level or below the lower one.
One more note on 76,666: the 13:00, 14:00, and 16:00 candles closed below it, while the 15:00 and 17:00 candles closed back above it. After crossing back and forth three times in one day, it’s no longer a clean dividing line; overnight, treat it only as a midpoint reference.
The easiest candle to misread is the 14:00 one: its lower wick probed 76,360, setting a new 24h low, and extended $112 below 76,472. But it closed at 76,558.5, recovering to $86.5 above 76,472. By the 1H closing-price criteria, continued downside was not triggered. A probe is not a break; a wick breaking below doesn’t count—the close recovered, so the level held.
The 20:00 candle is still in progress, with a high of 77,468.9 and a low of 76,966.5. The current price of 77,465.7 is just $104.4 below the upper level at 77,570.1. An intrabar move across a level does not count as a trigger; the first decisive point is the 21:00 close, i.e. the close of the 20:00 candle.
In a sample of 100 trades (over approx. 2.6 seconds), aggressive sells accounted for 94 and buys for 6. This is only a momentary reference, not evidence of direction.
━━━
📌 If I were the market maker
The afternoon wasn’t about chasing wicks: the 14:00 wick probed 76,360, then the candle closed back above 76,472. Anyone who chased the wick breakdown was taught a lesson by the recovery at the close. Conversely, the close also never rose above 77,570.1, so anyone chasing the upper level got no closing confirmation either. Neither side got confirmation at the close, so overnight I’d wait for the close—not chase an intrabar move.
Price is up about $421.1 from midday, while OI is down about 225.6 coins. Price rose as open interest fell; positions did not follow through.
━━━
📌 Overnight watch: first the 21:00 close, then the two levels
Above: A 1H close above 77,570.1 invalidates the breakdown; then watch 78,000.
Below: A 1H close below 76,472 signals continued downside; then watch 76,260.
Between: If the close holds above 76,472 and below 77,570.1, the market remains choppy; don’t guess the direction. Wicks and intrabar moves across either level do not count as triggers.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
