$HOT The two extreme readings I was watching in that early-morning post have now both eased. Back then, the funding rate was -2.0%, and the mark price was 4.70% below spot; this time around, the funding rate is 0.00125%, with the mark at 0.00057128 versus spot at 0.000571, leaving a premium of just 0.05%.
Price hasn’t stopped moving. It climbed from 0.000479 back then to 0.000571, another 19.2%; up 28.31% in four hours and 47.93% over 24 hours. Trading volume is about 10.44 million USDT, twice the 5.14 million back then.
What matters more to me is the sequence. That early-morning discount meant spot moved first while the futures market failed to keep up; now the price has moved up another level, yet the discount has narrowed to almost flat. The rally is still going, but the extreme signal I was using has been absorbed, and the cost side hasn’t provided another layer of confirmation.
To say price has truly moved into this next range, it first needs to close above the four-hour high at 0.000592 and hold. If it breaks below this hour’s low of 0.000518, it will give back the move from the last hour. Only when the reading from the 21:00 settlement moves away from the zero line will the cost side have made its position clear again.
The other side of the picture matters too: this four-hour candle had a 36.7% range, closed in the upper 87% of that range, and was 3.5% off the high. A candle with this shape can give the whole move back in just four hours.
#MarketHotspot
Price hasn’t stopped moving. It climbed from 0.000479 back then to 0.000571, another 19.2%; up 28.31% in four hours and 47.93% over 24 hours. Trading volume is about 10.44 million USDT, twice the 5.14 million back then.
What matters more to me is the sequence. That early-morning discount meant spot moved first while the futures market failed to keep up; now the price has moved up another level, yet the discount has narrowed to almost flat. The rally is still going, but the extreme signal I was using has been absorbed, and the cost side hasn’t provided another layer of confirmation.
To say price has truly moved into this next range, it first needs to close above the four-hour high at 0.000592 and hold. If it breaks below this hour’s low of 0.000518, it will give back the move from the last hour. Only when the reading from the 21:00 settlement moves away from the zero line will the cost side have made its position clear again.
The other side of the picture matters too: this four-hour candle had a 36.7% range, closed in the upper 87% of that range, and was 3.5% off the high. A candle with this shape can give the whole move back in just four hours.
#MarketHotspot
