BTC is just 2.2% above Strategy’s cost basis: I’m not buying the dip before election night
It’s not that prices can’t fall further; it’s that fewer and fewer people are willing to step in and buy.
Binance spot data (11/3, 19:36 Taipei time): BTC around 77,088, down 1.0% over 24 hours, with a low of 76,389; ETH around 2,266, down 0.9%; SOL around 92.5, down 1.6%, the weakest of the three. Compared with the 10/28 close, BTC is down about 5.2%, ETH about 4.0%, and SOL about 9.7%.
The flow data matters more. Farside data shows that U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $643 million on 10/30 and another $399 million on 11/2, for a combined total of about $1.04 billion over two trading days. Nearly all of the 11/2 outflow came from IBIT (-$405 million). ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling about $295 million over the past two days.
Now look at the biggest “true believer” buyer: on 11/2, Strategy disclosed that it held 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451. The current price is only about 2.2% above that. The Fear & Greed Index has also fallen from 37 to 26.
What does this mean?
Prices are falling, institutions are pulling back, and the largest holder’s cost basis is right below us. The $75,451 level won’t trigger any forced selling on its own, but if it breaks, “even the biggest buyer is underwater” will be the narrative the market is most likely to amplify. Real support isn’t a single price level—it’s when ETF outflows finally stop.
A few things to watch today (Taipei time):
· Starting 08:00 on 11/4: The first U.S. midterm election states close their polls and counting begins. Kalshi puts the odds of Democrats winning the House at 94% and the Senate at 74%; TD Cowen believes a Democratic sweep of both chambers would be the worst outcome for crypto
· Early morning on 11/4 (after the U.S. stock market closes): AMD earnings. BTC has been tracking tech stocks closely lately
· 21:30 on 11/6: U.S. October nonfarm payrolls
My view: Before the election results come in, watch fund flows for major coins rather than trying to guess the direction. For example, you could set out your conditions in advance: BTC ETFs post net inflows for two consecutive days again, and the price holds above $75,451. Write the rules down first, so you don’t have to rely on emotion to make decisions on election night.
OWL (@OfficialOwl_AI) is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering U.S. stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities. Built on ERC-4626 vaults, it has deployed strategy vaults across multiple EVM networks, with Robinhood Chain and Arc deployments underway. Strategy managers turn rules like “under what conditions to add exposure or reduce positions” into public, trackable on-chain strategies that can be reviewed afterward. As of 10/31, TVL was 7,528,536 USDC, with 4,620 holding addresses. You can first follow managers you’re interested in and star their strategies, then decide whether to subscribe.
I’m a member of the OWL team
OWL website 👉 https://dapp.owlowl.ai
On election night, will you look at ETF flows first, or Strategy’s cost basis?
This is only my personal opinion. Please manage your positions and risk accordingly.
#BTC #ETF资金流 #USMidtermElections
It’s not that prices can’t fall further; it’s that fewer and fewer people are willing to step in and buy.
Binance spot data (11/3, 19:36 Taipei time): BTC around 77,088, down 1.0% over 24 hours, with a low of 76,389; ETH around 2,266, down 0.9%; SOL around 92.5, down 1.6%, the weakest of the three. Compared with the 10/28 close, BTC is down about 5.2%, ETH about 4.0%, and SOL about 9.7%.
The flow data matters more. Farside data shows that U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $643 million on 10/30 and another $399 million on 11/2, for a combined total of about $1.04 billion over two trading days. Nearly all of the 11/2 outflow came from IBIT (-$405 million). ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling about $295 million over the past two days.
Now look at the biggest “true believer” buyer: on 11/2, Strategy disclosed that it held 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451. The current price is only about 2.2% above that. The Fear & Greed Index has also fallen from 37 to 26.
What does this mean?
Prices are falling, institutions are pulling back, and the largest holder’s cost basis is right below us. The $75,451 level won’t trigger any forced selling on its own, but if it breaks, “even the biggest buyer is underwater” will be the narrative the market is most likely to amplify. Real support isn’t a single price level—it’s when ETF outflows finally stop.
A few things to watch today (Taipei time):
· Starting 08:00 on 11/4: The first U.S. midterm election states close their polls and counting begins. Kalshi puts the odds of Democrats winning the House at 94% and the Senate at 74%; TD Cowen believes a Democratic sweep of both chambers would be the worst outcome for crypto
· Early morning on 11/4 (after the U.S. stock market closes): AMD earnings. BTC has been tracking tech stocks closely lately
· 21:30 on 11/6: U.S. October nonfarm payrolls
My view: Before the election results come in, watch fund flows for major coins rather than trying to guess the direction. For example, you could set out your conditions in advance: BTC ETFs post net inflows for two consecutive days again, and the price holds above $75,451. Write the rules down first, so you don’t have to rely on emotion to make decisions on election night.
OWL (@OfficialOwl_AI) is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering U.S. stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities. Built on ERC-4626 vaults, it has deployed strategy vaults across multiple EVM networks, with Robinhood Chain and Arc deployments underway. Strategy managers turn rules like “under what conditions to add exposure or reduce positions” into public, trackable on-chain strategies that can be reviewed afterward. As of 10/31, TVL was 7,528,536 USDC, with 4,620 holding addresses. You can first follow managers you’re interested in and star their strategies, then decide whether to subscribe.
I’m a member of the OWL team
OWL website 👉 https://dapp.owlowl.ai
On election night, will you look at ETF flows first, or Strategy’s cost basis?
This is only my personal opinion. Please manage your positions and risk accordingly.
#BTC #ETF资金流 #USMidtermElections
