BlockBeats News, Nov. 3: According to a Bloomberg Market Pulse survey, respondents’ median forecast for Bitcoin’s year-end price is $90,800 if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress, and $76,450 if Democrats take control of both chambers. If the two parties split control of the House and Senate, the median year-end Bitcoin price forecast is $84,100. On the policy front, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg believes that Democratic control of both chambers would be the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin and the crypto industry, potentially making the CLARITY Act difficult to pass over the next two years. Republican control of both chambers would be the most favorable outcome for advancing crypto policy, but the bill could still stall if the Republicans’ Senate majority is narrow. Prediction market data shows a 77% probability of Democrats sweeping both chambers of Congress, the outcome the market considers most likely.

On the short-term outlook, QCP noted that events such as the midterm elections and nonfarm payrolls are clustered together. Bitcoin’s support zone is $76,000 to $76,600, with resistance at $79,500 to $80,500. If support breaks, the market will be watching the 50-week moving average at around $75,700 and the 200-day moving average at around $73,100. Noted trader Doctor Profit wrote that this week’s U.S. midterm elections and earnings reports from several companies could bring significant volatility. He still sees $76,000 as a key level for maintaining the bull market structure, citing its proximity to the previous breakout zone, major weekly support, and the 50-week moving average. He said at least 2 to 3 daily closes below this level would be needed to confirm a breakdown; if it fails, Bitcoin could risk falling to $67,000 to $69,000.

Risk Dimensions Chief Investment Officer Mark Connors believes that, for year-end positioning, closely watching prediction markets and preliminary exit poll results is a waste of time. Even if Democrats control both chambers, crypto adoption still has the support of regulators and major financial firms. He maintains his target of $180,000 for Bitcoin in 2027. Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that fourth-quarter sell-offs in midterm election years typically offer buying opportunities for investors who sold earlier. BTC fell 17.3%, 43.5%, and 14.8% in the fourth quarters of 2014, 2018, and 2022, respectively, all three of which were bear markets. Data over a longer time frame shows a different picture: CoinDesk’s analysis indicates that, excluding 2010 when the market was extremely small, BTC gained an average of 53.7% in the 12 months following the past three midterm elections. However, the sample is limited, and the rallies may have been driven by halving cycles rather than the elections themselves.

In a November 2 report, Bitwise Head of European Research André Dragosch and researcher Luke Deans emphasized that, so far, no statistically significant impact of midterm election odds on the performance of major crypto assets has been found. Compared with the elections, tightening financial conditions, inflation, and risks from AI trading are more important. Bitcoin’s short-term downside risk may remain elevated until global growth expectations have been fully repriced.