On US midterm election day, BTC is 39% below its peak. On the same 393rd day after the peak, the 2017 cycle was down 82% and the 2021 cycle was down 75%. The peak was 126.2k on October 6, 2025; the price is now 76.8k.
In Q4 of the previous two midterm years, BTC fell 44% in 2018 and 15% in 2022. The cycle lows came 39 and 13 days after the elections. This time, the most recent low was 57.8k on July 1, 54% below the peak, while the previous two cycles fell 84% and 78%.
It’s not yet clear why the decline has been milder. The two earlier cycles had no US spot Bitcoin ETFs—the SEC approved them in January 2024—but there’s no data linking them to this shallower decline.
On the other hand, the two earlier cycles rebounded by as much as 48% and 43% from their mid-cycle lows, then fell below those lows. This cycle has rebounded by as much as 51% to 87.4k, and is now up 33%. Two election cycles are too few to say that elections are related to the bottom. The case for 57.8k as the bottom would lose its basis if a weekly candle closes below 57.8k.
Follow along with me to see how the cycle unfolds.
#Bitcoin #Midterms $BTC
In Q4 of the previous two midterm years, BTC fell 44% in 2018 and 15% in 2022. The cycle lows came 39 and 13 days after the elections. This time, the most recent low was 57.8k on July 1, 54% below the peak, while the previous two cycles fell 84% and 78%.
It’s not yet clear why the decline has been milder. The two earlier cycles had no US spot Bitcoin ETFs—the SEC approved them in January 2024—but there’s no data linking them to this shallower decline.
On the other hand, the two earlier cycles rebounded by as much as 48% and 43% from their mid-cycle lows, then fell below those lows. This cycle has rebounded by as much as 51% to 87.4k, and is now up 33%. Two election cycles are too few to say that elections are related to the bottom. The case for 57.8k as the bottom would lose its basis if a weekly candle closes below 57.8k.
Follow along with me to see how the cycle unfolds.
#Bitcoin #Midterms $BTC
