This week, instead of the election, I’m paying closer attention to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
According to Blockhead’s roundup on November 3: On October 28, the Fed held rates steady by a 10:2 vote, with two officials voting for a hike; Polymarket puts the odds of a rate hike in December at around 71%. Add September’s 3.6% year-over-year PCE inflation, and the focus is no longer “waiting for rate cuts,” but “will they hike again?”
The market expects around 65,000 jobs to be added in Friday’s October nonfarm payrolls report (September’s figure was only 29,000). Interestingly, weaker data wouldn’t necessarily be good news: with inflation this high, weak data could be interpreted as stagflation; stronger data would bolster rate-hike expectations, putting more pressure on assets like $BTC and $ETH that generate no cash flow.
Also, BTC has risen in only three of the past eight Novembers. In the two midterm election years, 2018 and 2022, it fell 36.6% and 16.2%, respectively (small sample size, for reference only).
My take: Don’t use leverage to bet on a direction this week. Wait for the nonfarm payrolls report and see what happens. Which do you think is more dangerous: strong data or weak data?
#宏观 #NonfarmPayrolls
For reference only; not investment advice.
According to Blockhead’s roundup on November 3: On October 28, the Fed held rates steady by a 10:2 vote, with two officials voting for a hike; Polymarket puts the odds of a rate hike in December at around 71%. Add September’s 3.6% year-over-year PCE inflation, and the focus is no longer “waiting for rate cuts,” but “will they hike again?”
The market expects around 65,000 jobs to be added in Friday’s October nonfarm payrolls report (September’s figure was only 29,000). Interestingly, weaker data wouldn’t necessarily be good news: with inflation this high, weak data could be interpreted as stagflation; stronger data would bolster rate-hike expectations, putting more pressure on assets like $BTC and $ETH that generate no cash flow.
Also, BTC has risen in only three of the past eight Novembers. In the two midterm election years, 2018 and 2022, it fell 36.6% and 16.2%, respectively (small sample size, for reference only).
My take: Don’t use leverage to bet on a direction this week. Wait for the nonfarm payrolls report and see what happens. Which do you think is more dangerous: strong data or weak data?
#宏观 #NonfarmPayrolls
For reference only; not investment advice.