After being hammered about 10% on Friday by guidance from a chip leader, Arm plunged another 4.5% on Monday to 196.79. Down about 14% over two days and still roughly 17.5% below its MA20—I'm not catching this falling knife ahead of earnings.
What I saw:
According to Yahoo, ARM closed Friday at 205.97 (−9.97%) and fell further Monday to 196.79 (−4.46%), with an intraday low of 196.12. From Thursday's close of 228.77, that's a two-day drop of about 14.0%. The current price is still about 17.5% below its MA20 of ≈238.7. TIKR says options had priced in an earnings move of about 10.5% beforehand, meaning that one shout from someone else has already eaten up most of a “results-level” drop. TSMC also fell about 1.9% Monday to 398.63, still about 8% below its MA20. Quarterly results are due 11/4.
My take:
The fallout from the guidance hasn't run its course, and its own earnings are coming up. This isn't a spot where I'm stepping in to buy the dip.
Watching, not chasing: Let's talk again if it gets back above Friday's close of 205.97 or its MA20 of ≈238.7. If it breaks below Monday's low of ≈196.1, I'll take that as a sign the second leg down isn't over.
Do you think this is the sector fallout finally clearing, or will the 11/4 guidance trigger another sell-off?
$ARM $TSM
#半导体 #台积电
What I saw:
According to Yahoo, ARM closed Friday at 205.97 (−9.97%) and fell further Monday to 196.79 (−4.46%), with an intraday low of 196.12. From Thursday's close of 228.77, that's a two-day drop of about 14.0%. The current price is still about 17.5% below its MA20 of ≈238.7. TIKR says options had priced in an earnings move of about 10.5% beforehand, meaning that one shout from someone else has already eaten up most of a “results-level” drop. TSMC also fell about 1.9% Monday to 398.63, still about 8% below its MA20. Quarterly results are due 11/4.
My take:
The fallout from the guidance hasn't run its course, and its own earnings are coming up. This isn't a spot where I'm stepping in to buy the dip.
Watching, not chasing: Let's talk again if it gets back above Friday's close of 205.97 or its MA20 of ≈238.7. If it breaks below Monday's low of ≈196.1, I'll take that as a sign the second leg down isn't over.
Do you think this is the sector fallout finally clearing, or will the 11/4 guidance trigger another sell-off?
$ARM $TSM
#半导体 #台积电
