Gold is now at $3,909.56 per ounce (XAU/USD) on the morning of Tuesday, November 3, 2026, down $37.07 (-0.94%) from Monday's close ($3,946.63), giving up some of yesterday's gains (+1.83%) and remaining below the 3,944–3,976 zone that was breached on October 30. Gold ended October at $3,875.44, down 6.78% for the month and below its 20-month average near $4,033.
According to morning prices, silver fell 3.54% to $49.085 (below $50 again, with the gold-to-silver ratio at around 79.6), while West Texas crude rose 1.29% to $97.70 and Brent rose 1.44% to $106.28. Copper fell 2.79% to $6.384 and aluminum 1.67%. The 10-year yield reached 4.905% (+1.5 basis points) and the 2-year yield 4.593%, while the dollar index fell 0.09% to 101.53.
Gold News Today
Gold retreats amid weakness in industrial metals (copper -2.79%), declines in European stocks (DAX -0.87% and FTSE 100 -0.33%), and a slight rise in Treasury yields, after the Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%—the highest level since 2008 and its fifth hike this year—in a split 6-3 vote. Governor Michele Bullock said inflation expectations had become entrenched. In the background, Apple reported record revenue ($114.5 billion), above expectations, but weaker profit-margin guidance weighed on the stock after the close. Markets continue to price in about a 75% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, following mixed manufacturing data yesterday.
Today’s Main Event
Today, Tuesday, November 3: U.S. midterm elections (all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats), with partial results coming in during the evening.
6:00 p.m. Saudi time: JOLTS job openings data.
Historically, gold fell on the first trading day after voting in each of the last five midterm elections, by an average of about 0.97%, then rose by an average of about 2.40% over the following month (Pepperstone; secondary data, not a forecast).
Tomorrow and the day after: ISM Services and ADP on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and jobs data on Friday.
Technical Analysis (WarrenAI)
WarrenAI’s analysis (11:10 a.m., with gold at 3,907.03) says that “gold is losing ground”: the trend is bearish because price remains below 3,944-3,976 after breaking below that zone; October closed below the 20-month average with lower monthly highs; the weekly price is below the 10-, 20- and 40-week averages, weekly MACD is negative, and RSI is at 35; the daily trend is strong (ADX at 29, with -DI dominant). On the 5-hour timeframe, the rebound failed to reclaim the breakdown zone (EMA20 at 3,962.85), and RSI is at 35.02. A move toward 3,857 (the lower Bollinger Band) could trigger a countertrend bounce.
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Resistance: 3,944-3,976 (about 0.9%-1.7% above price), then 4,060 (descending trendline), then 4,082.79 (a break above it invalidates the short-term sequence of lower highs).
Support: 3,820-3,872 (about 1.0%-2.3% below price), then 3,776 (78.6% Fibonacci), then 3,600-3,550 if 3,815 breaks.
Base case (medium confidence): continued decline as long as gold remains below 3,976, with 3,820 and then 3,776 in view; a break below 3,815 opens the way to 3,600-3,550.
Sell on a retest (medium confidence): targets at 3,820 and then 3,776; invalidated by a daily close above 4,035, with a return of about 1.9R.
Sell after a break below 3,815 (medium confidence): targets at 3,776, then 3,600 and 3,550, with a return of about 1.5R to 3,600.
Reversal above 3,976 (low confidence): this would mean the break was a bear trap, with targets at 4,082.79 and then 4,225, for a return of about 2.1R. However, it runs counter to the higher timeframes and needs confirmation.
Note: confidence is a technical judgment, not a probability. The risk/reward ratios match our calculations using the inputs disclosed in yesterday’s analysis. These are educational scenarios, not recommendations.
What the major banks are saying
UBS: On October 23, Staunovo said that structural dip buyers would establish a floor near $4,000, supported by central-bank purchases of 750-1,000 tonnes per year. That floor has been broken.
Morgan Stanley: Amy Gower described $4,000 as a strong floor, supported by central-bank purchases. That level has also been broken.
Société Générale: It viewed the June and July lows at 3,960-3,940 as the bottom of a multi-month range. Gold has fallen below that range (according to reports).
Bank of America: An average of 4,000 for the fourth quarter and a potential floor at 3,750, close to WarrenAI’s target of 3,776 (according to reports).
Goldman Sachs: A target of $4,650 by the end of 2026, lowered from $5,400 (according to reports).
HSBC: It lowered its average forecast for 2026 to $4,490 and for 2027 to $4,825.
Sucden Financial: It expects a test of 3,900 before the December Fed meeting, followed by a recovery to 4,200-4,300 by mid-January.
Outside the banks: Jesse Colombo is watching 3,500 as the next support if the 3,900-4,000 zone fails, without predicting that gold will reach it. Jane Bawden (Bawden Capital) sees the recent selling as a liquidity squeeze rather than a crisis, and says it could be followed by a rebound, while warning of further downside first.
Reuters poll: Median 2026 forecast at $4,495.
Daily Summary
Gold retreats to around $3,910, giving back some of Monday’s gains, and remains below the 3,944-3,976 resistance on U.S. midterm election day, while the Bank of Australia raises rates to 4.85% and silver and copper weaken. WarrenAI’s technical base case is for further declines, with medium confidence, toward 3,820 and then 3,776 (a break below 3,815 opens the way to 3,600-3,550). The outlook would weaken only if gold regains 3,976 and then breaks above 4,082.79.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the gold price now? Around $3,909.56 (-0.94%) on Tuesday morning, November 3, 2026.
What did the Bank of Australia do? It raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote, the highest level since 2008.
What are the key gold levels today? Resistance at 3,944-3,976, then 4,060 and 4,082.79; support at 3,820-3,872, then 3,776 and 3,600.
What are today’s key events? The U.S. midterm elections and JOLTS data (6:00 p.m. Saudi time).\u003cc-270/\u003e\u003ct-271/\u003e\u003ct-272/\u003e\u003ct-273/\u003e\u003ct-274/\u003e\u003ct-275/\u003e\u003cc-276/\u003e
