If you bought $BTC anywhere near $80,000, this pullback feels like the breakout failed.
The chart says the real test has not arrived yet.
From the summer low near $58,000 to the late September high near $88,000, price has now retraced to the 38.2% level at $76,500. That is a normal pullback, not a breakdown.
The level that actually decides this sits lower:
$73,000
That is where the rising 200 day moving average meets the 50% retracement of the whole move. Two tools agreeing on one price is the line worth watching.
Resistance to reclaim: $80,000
Support to defend: $75,500
Decision level: $73,000
Invalidation: a weekly close below $69,500
The warning sign is on the weekly. MACD is rolling over toward a bearish cross and RSI has slipped back to 50, so momentum is cooling even while price holds its trend.
On the daily, RSI sits near 34, close to oversold, while price has printed lower highs since early October.
Above the 200 day, this is an uptrend taking a breath. A weekly close under $69,500 turns it into something else.
Does $73,000 hold, or does it break?
Breakouts get bought by everyone. Retests get bought by the people who planned for them.
The chart says the real test has not arrived yet.
From the summer low near $58,000 to the late September high near $88,000, price has now retraced to the 38.2% level at $76,500. That is a normal pullback, not a breakdown.
The level that actually decides this sits lower:
$73,000
That is where the rising 200 day moving average meets the 50% retracement of the whole move. Two tools agreeing on one price is the line worth watching.
Resistance to reclaim: $80,000
Support to defend: $75,500
Decision level: $73,000
Invalidation: a weekly close below $69,500
The warning sign is on the weekly. MACD is rolling over toward a bearish cross and RSI has slipped back to 50, so momentum is cooling even while price holds its trend.
On the daily, RSI sits near 34, close to oversold, while price has printed lower highs since early October.
Above the 200 day, this is an uptrend taking a breath. A weekly close under $69,500 turns it into something else.
Does $73,000 hold, or does it break?
Breakouts get bought by everyone. Retests get bought by the people who planned for them.
