Binance's SAFU fund now holds just 7,500 $BTC , worth about $577M as of Nov. 3, down from 15,000 BTC in February. That's below the $800M threshold Binance set in its own FAQ.

1/ What the blockchain shows. The SAFU address published by Binance (1BAuq7...CmWQkD) sent a test 1 BTC on Oct. 31 at 14:45 UTC, then 7,499 BTC six minutes later. Balance on mempool.space this Tuesday: 7,500.0 BTC. CoinDesk reported the movement this morning.

2/ Why this isn't a surprise. On Oct. 31, Binance announced that it had partially used SAFU to cover the $6.3B hack, drawing on its treasury and part of its futures insurance fund. The fund did its job: protecting customers.

3/ What's still unclear. The FAQ says the fund will be replenished to $1B if it falls below $800M “due to fluctuations in the price of BTC.” It doesn't mention a fund that's been spent. Binance promises to restore it to about $1B, without giving a date, and hasn't quantified how much of the insurance fund was used (CoinDesk).

4/ The math. At Binance's price of $76,904 (07:47 UTC), about 5,500 BTC would need to be bought or transferred to get back to $1B. If BTC falls, the bill goes up.

My take, not advice: a deposit visible at this address would be a stronger confidence signal than any statement, at a time when phase 2 of withdrawals reopened this morning at 04:00 UTC (BSC, ETH, SOL, XRP, SUI, according to Reuters). Two possibilities:
- a quick refill, and the issue drops off the radar in a few days;
- prolonged silence, and SAFU comes up again every time $BNB has a down day. It's around $695 today.

Are you expecting a SAFU refill before the next Proof of Reserves snapshot on Nov. 4, or later?

#Binance #SAFU