Current status:
- *Voting is underway today.* All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, and 36 governorships are up for election.
- *There are no final results yet.* The first polling places close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time (2 a.m. in Jeddah on November 4). Preliminary results will start coming in throughout the night, but close races may take days or weeks to be officially certified.
- Pre-vote forecasts: Prediction markets give Democrats a strong chance of winning Congress—Polymarket puts the odds of a full sweep at around 72%, while Kalshi gives them a 94% chance of winning the House and 73% for the Senate. d9a233d6b690
Its impact on crypto—what happened today:
The market is down as voting begins:
- Total crypto market capitalization fell *-2.54% to $2.57 trillion*, and BTC broke below *$77,000, reaching $76,500*—close to its September low.
- The elections aren't the only reason:
1. *Hedging, not a new bet:* Implied volatility for BTC options expiring November 4 (immediately after the election) is 43.5%, versus 36% for the following weeks. That means traders are just buying insurance, not opening new positions.
2. *Institutional outflows:* Spot BTC funds saw more than $1 billion in outflows over the last two trading days before the election, following a $6.3 billion Binance breach last week.
3. *Pressure from tech stocks:* Amazon and Alphabet weighed on risk appetite. 95d1382c
What does the result mean for crypto?
Analysts see three possible scenarios:
*1. The fate of the CLARITY Act:* The bill, which determines whether the SEC or CFTC oversees crypto, failed in the Senate on September 15 (50–49; it needed 60 votes). If Republicans retain the Senate, it could get another chance. If Democrats take control, especially with Elizabeth Warren on the Banking Committee, legislation could stall and regulation could shift directly to the agencies. b21bc7f8
*2. History is worrying, but not decisive:* BTC fell after every previous midterm election: -48% in 2014, -37% in 2018, and -16% in 2022 before reaching its low. But historically, its average gain in the 12 months after a midterm election is +53.7%, while the S&P 500 has historically risen 15% in the year after a midterm. b21b
*3. Expectations are priced in:* A Bloomberg survey of 301 traders found that if Democrats sweep, 55% expect BTC to be between $60k and its current price, and 16% expect it to fall below $60k. So the real reaction will depend on the surprise, not the result itself. 5938
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