【Major Event: U.S. Midterm Election Schedule & Complete Guide to the Process, Plus Current Market Forecast Probabilities】
The U.S. midterm elections are here today. See the chart below for a complete guide to the schedule and process.
Now let’s look at the three possible outcomes and current market forecasts:
1. Democrats sweep both chambers (win both the Senate + House of Representatives)
Polymarket: 76%–78%
Kalshi: 74%
JPMorgan: 66%
✅ This is currently the market’s baseline expectation, with the highest probability. The market consensus is pricing in this outcome.
2. Divided Congress: Democrats win the House, while Republicans retain the Senate
Polymarket: 19%
Kalshi: No data
JPMorgan: Included among the remaining scenarios ⚠️ This is an unexpected outcome; if it comes to pass, it could easily cause market volatility.
3. Republicans retain both chambers (control both the Senate and the House)
Polymarket: 6% Kalshi: No data
$QQQ $XAU $BTC
The U.S. midterm elections are here today. See the chart below for a complete guide to the schedule and process.
Now let’s look at the three possible outcomes and current market forecasts:
1. Democrats sweep both chambers (win both the Senate + House of Representatives)
Polymarket: 76%–78%
Kalshi: 74%
JPMorgan: 66%
✅ This is currently the market’s baseline expectation, with the highest probability. The market consensus is pricing in this outcome.
2. Divided Congress: Democrats win the House, while Republicans retain the Senate
Polymarket: 19%
Kalshi: No data
JPMorgan: Included among the remaining scenarios ⚠️ This is an unexpected outcome; if it comes to pass, it could easily cause market volatility.
3. Republicans retain both chambers (control both the Senate and the House)
Polymarket: 6% Kalshi: No data
$QQQ $XAU $BTC
