Is the tide about to turn? 76.5% are betting on the Democrats, and Musk is the first to have his past dug up
The results of the U.S. midterm elections are due tomorrow morning. Prediction markets have put the odds of the Democrats sweeping both chambers at 76.5%.
Most people are still watching stock prices. Let me be honest: this time, Musk needs to worry less about the stock price and more about congressional hearings.
According to foreign media reports, Democratic lawmakers have already said that if they take the House, they’ll investigate his time at the Department of Government Efficiency, the contracts Starship signed with the government, and the clean-energy subsidies Tesla has received.
Even more intriguing, Trump said late Monday night that government employees could be pardoned in advance if necessary. Speaking about Musk, he called it mere speculation, but said the people involved need protection.
My take is simple: first, distinguish between what’s just noise and what’s a real constraint. Hearings and subpoenas are noise; even two years of arguing won’t undo the launch orders SPCX has already signed. The real constraint is government contract and subsidy funding—that depends on how future appropriations negotiations go.
As for prices, SPCX closed at 136.37 on Monday, and TSLA closed at 403.82. The two perpetual contracts were trading around 136.9 and 401.7, respectively; neither made a big move ahead of the election.
The risk is that on the day the results come out, both stocks could get swept along by sentiment for a while! When that happens, I’ll lead the Krusty Krab crew into the market to scoop up some bargains! Sound good?
#币安每小时充值量已超过提现量 #美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？
The results of the U.S. midterm elections are due tomorrow morning. Prediction markets have put the odds of the Democrats sweeping both chambers at 76.5%.
Most people are still watching stock prices. Let me be honest: this time, Musk needs to worry less about the stock price and more about congressional hearings.
According to foreign media reports, Democratic lawmakers have already said that if they take the House, they’ll investigate his time at the Department of Government Efficiency, the contracts Starship signed with the government, and the clean-energy subsidies Tesla has received.
Even more intriguing, Trump said late Monday night that government employees could be pardoned in advance if necessary. Speaking about Musk, he called it mere speculation, but said the people involved need protection.
My take is simple: first, distinguish between what’s just noise and what’s a real constraint. Hearings and subpoenas are noise; even two years of arguing won’t undo the launch orders SPCX has already signed. The real constraint is government contract and subsidy funding—that depends on how future appropriations negotiations go.
As for prices, SPCX closed at 136.37 on Monday, and TSLA closed at 403.82. The two perpetual contracts were trading around 136.9 and 401.7, respectively; neither made a big move ahead of the election.
The risk is that on the day the results come out, both stocks could get swept along by sentiment for a while! When that happens, I’ll lead the Krusty Krab crew into the market to scoop up some bargains! Sound good?
#币安每小时充值量已超过提现量 #美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？
